FAQs

Yes. Notifications are delivered as soon as trigger conditions are met.

Yes. Alerts can be set by percentage change or absolute value movement. 

Via email and in-platform notifications. 

Commodity price movement alerts, forecast changes, content updates and watchlist-based notifications.

Expana’s forecasting models flagged rising crude oil price risk in January 2026, ahead of the current escalation. Procurement teams with access to forward price forecasts and commodity price benchmarks are better placed to time purchasing decisions, secure hedging strategies, and build stronger supplier negotiation positions. 

By definition, yes – that’s what makes them different from black swan events. Grey rhinos are high-impact risks that are well-documented and visible in advance; the problem is not a lack of information, it’s a lack of attention. Rising unemployment and an inverted yield curve are textbook examples: the data is public, the historical pattern is clear, and yet both tend to get dismissed or forgotten as time passes without an immediate crisis. The risk doesn’t go away just because people stop talking about it.

Crude oil and natural gas face the most immediate impact. Secondary effects are already showing up in plastics, aluminium, fertilizers, and transportation costs. Inflation in these input categories will work through to consumer goods over the coming weeks and months. 

Soft commodities – those dependent on agricultural production – tend to carry the highest price risk, given their exposure to weather, disease, and geopolitical disruption. Cocoa, coffee, wheat, palm oil, and sugar have all seen significant volatility in recent years. Energy-linked costs such as packaging materials and logistics are increasingly relevant for food manufacturers too, because oil price movements feed through into petrochemical-derived inputs. 

It gives you a forward view of where prices are likely to move, which means better-timed purchasing decisions, more informed contract negotiations, and earlier sight of potential cost pressures. Rather than responding to price movements after the fact, teams with reliable forecasting can act ahead of the market – buying forward before a price rise, deferring purchases before a projected fall, or locking in fixed-price agreements at the right point in the cycle. 

Combining operational strategies – fixed-price supplier agreements, strategic purchasing, and supply base diversification – with commodity price forecasting to inform the timing and scale of each decision. The common thread is acting before volatility hits, not after. 

The rally is being driven by crude oil strength and expectations of stronger biodiesel demand, which pulls soybean oil higher in futures. However, the physical market has been comparatively quiet, with end users hesitant to buy at elevated prices and some cargoes being redirected or discounted due to regional uncertainty. Large soybean supplies in Brazil, the US, and Argentina are also tempering tightness concerns.

Exposure looks smaller than some market narratives suggest. Expana’s experts cited European Commission data indicating the Gulf and nearby markets account for roughly 4 to 5 percent of EU dairy exports, not 20 percent as circulated in some commentary. Risks are more about higher costs and shipping delays than immediate loss of all flows, helped by rerouting options and alternative ports.

Largely sentiment in the near term. The presenters stressed that while headlines can move dairy prices quickly, fundamentals currently point to ample supply, with milk output growing again in key exporting regions and stocks available in Europe. Any sustained shift would more likely come later, if higher energy, feed, and fertilizer costs begin to reduce production.

Chicken prices are influenced by breeder flock size, feed costs (primarily corn and soybean meal), disease outbreaks (such as avian influenza), seasonal demand patterns, export volumes, and broader consumer protein substitution dynamics.

Expana’s 2026 chicken price forecast incorporates macro-economic indicators, feed cost trends, and breeder flock performance data. Forecast pricing is available to subscribers via the Expana platform, covering weekly, monthly, and yearly and 24-month forward projections.

Chicken prices in early 2026 have recovered modestly after a sharp decline in Q4 2025, driven by tighter breeder flock availability, seasonal demand increases, and stabilising feed costs. The Expana Chicken Index fell from a 2025 peak of over $1.00/lb to a low of $0.56/lb before beginning to recover in January 2026.

The Expana US Chicken Index Benchmark Price as of early March 2026 is approximately $0.62 per lb, down from a high of $1.02/lb recorded in April 2025.

By leveraging IOSCO-assured price benchmarks, comprehensive historical pricing data, and Expana’s predictive forecasting tools to negotiate contracts and time purchases strategically. 

Energy and LNG markets, soybean oil, grains, feed additives, skim milk powder, and energy-intensive manufacturing sectors like plastics and glass. 

The duration depends on how long the Middle East conflict persists and the extended logistics impacts. Even after resolution, supply chain disruptions can last several months. 

IOSCO compliance requires an independent, third-party audit, a comprehensive assurance report and ongoing, consistent compliance. You can find our IOSCO Assurance Report, available here covering: 

• Our methodology, systems, and policies 
• How we engage with the industry, handle complaints and defend our assessments 
• Our rigorous and secure record-keeping 
• Expana’s application of its assessment methodology in every assessment it prepares 

IOSCO assurance refers to the independent verification of financial information against global standards. Assurance aims to boost investor confidence by ensuring the reliability and transparency of information provided to the market.

IOSCO regulations are designed to enhance investor protection, ensure markets are fair and efficient, and promote financial stability. 

The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) is the global standard for financial markets regulations.