In an industry defined by volatility, feed additive buyers and sellers have long operated with limited foresight into future pricing trends – until now. With the launch of new forecasting tools for key additives methionine and vitamin E, market intelligence provider Expana is reshaping how the animal nutrition sector approaches risk management, procurement and strategic planning.
By blending decades of proprietary pricing data with deep technical, fundamental, and macroeconomic analysis, these forecasts are more than just numbers – they’re a long-awaited tool to decode the uncertainty faced by feed supply chain buyers and sellers for years.
In this interview Expana’s Simon Duke, Feedinfo veteran and Managing Editor for EMEA and Kevin Bull, Senior Forecast Analyst give their views on why this new capability is being hailed as a game changer.
What was the strategic thinking behind launching price forecasts specifically for European methionine and vitamin E?
[Simon Duke] Having reported on the animal nutrition industry for two decades, I know that additional market insight into these key markets would be welcomed by the sector.
Not only are methionine and vitamin E some of the most widely used feed additives in commercial animal production, but history also tells us that they are also subject to tremendous global market volatility with prices ever so vulnerable to various supply disruptions such as factory closures or Force Majeures. More recently we have seen that geopolitical events, such as US tariffs, anti-dumping investigations, and global production issues have created significant market uncertainty.
Having a proven data-driven price forecasting component for these products is something the animal nutrition supply chain has been demanding for many years as cost-control and offsetting risks are crucial to their operations. By combining our price history with the industry’s most comprehensive supply and demand database, and by tracking global production and consumption, Expana can deliver forecasts that are robust and highly relevant for decision-making. Expana is uniquely positioned to launch forecasts given our unmatched feed additive IOSCO-certified price database with over 20 years of history.
Why is this new feed additives forecasting intelligence a game changer for the animal nutrition and feed sector?
[Simon Duke] Unlike more liquid commodities, there are no public databases for feed additives. Expana’s data has been built from the ground up in close collaboration with the feed additive industry over the past 20 years. As a result, no other forecast can match the depth, accuracy, and credibility that comes from combining this proprietary fundamental dataset with our proven market expertise.
It’s exciting to now be able to offer forecasting intelligence for companies operating in an ever-changing environment, always dealing with uncertainty. By launching methionine and vitamin E price forecasts, we aim to provide direction for buyers and sellers and somewhat help ease the concerns of those with procurement pain points.
How do you see feed additive forecasting integrating with Expana’s existing offerings?
[Simon Duke] Feedinfo and Expana users can track key feed additives (amino acids, vitamins, minerals) across Europe, North and South America, as well as Asia. We already have twice-weekly benchmark spot price updates which capture the short-term movements, as well as weekly and monthly analyses focused more on the medium-term market dynamics. Additionally, we produce daily news stories and in-depth articles which keep you informed of the latest market drivers. Finally, our supply and demand database provides insight into major structural trends for amino acids and vitamins.
With the addition of forecasts, users can now also anticipate future price developments. This end-to-end service supports everything from daily purchasing to long-term strategic planning for the sector.
Could you walk us through the methodology behind these forecasts? What makes your intel accurate, robust and reliable?
[Kevin Bull] Expana is unique in that an individual analyst is assigned to all core commodity forecasts. Each forecast consists of a detailed understanding of how the commodity in question reacts to fundamental analysis, technical analysis and the overall macro economy. This 3-tier approach ensures that a complete understanding is obtained of what “key drivers” affect the commodity in question from a pricing perspective.
Studying commodities from a fundamental perspective provides a valuable insight into the relationship between supply and demand, inventories and seasonality, for example. Understanding each commodity from a technical analysis perspective provides insight into the current trend and its expected duration, including understanding key market levels that can forecast market turning points.
Certain commodities can show a strong correlation between pricing and the overall macro economy, so it is imperative to understand this correlation. All commodities express a different relationship between these three key areas, so understanding each in detail is essential to ensure a robust and accurate forecast is provided.
Your forecasts show what is expected to happen to markets over the upcoming two years. Can you give us a sneak peek of what we will see in European methionine and vitamin E markets over the next 6 months?
[Kevin Bull] Global demand for both methionine and vitamin E remains robust. However, prices for methionine and vitamin E have fallen back to levels similar to those seen in 2019; both commodities have experienced increased price volatility since this low point.
Such pricing volatility can be attributed to the industry through oversupply, changing demand, fluctuating production costs and inventory pressures. This is expected to persist, resulting in ongoing price volatility, which is forecast to continue into 2026.
How do you ensure transparency and traceability in your forecasting models?
[Kevin Bull] Each commodity forecast will display a target for each quarter for the forthcoming two years. Targets include detailed analysis of the reasons behind the target, including fundamental, technical and macroeconomic analysis. Transparency is provided by all targets remaining on the chart once published, so if a target is missed, it will remain to show the original position. For example, this can happen when forecasting an increase in pricing that peaked in Q3 rather than the original target peak placed in Q2 of a prospective year.
This approach to target management ensures accountability and transparency for all past and future targets of individual commodity forecasts.
How do you think this new forecasting capability will change the way buyers and sellers interact with the market? How will this information help them in decision-making?
[Kevin Bull] Forecasts provide a valuable insight into the future of market pricing. This allows budgeting and greater overall cost control. If a business can limit its exposure to increasing commodity prices, it is far better positioned to manage its return on investment. Many businesses have a proven and successful business model but can fail to provide a return due to unforeseen external pricing pressures.
[Simon Duke] Forecasts is another tool on the belt of the feed additive buyer and seller. Tracking raw materials, geopolitical events, plant shutdowns, and broader trends is nearly impossible alongside daily responsibilities of cash-flow/stock management and getting product delivered on time.
Our models integrate this data for market participants into robust forecasts. The forecast can help streamline negotiation, allowing buyers and sellers to shift focus toward higher-level strategic priorities.
To find out more about Expana’s feed additives forecasting offerings, request a demo.
Written by Simon Duke
