On 30 June, 2025, the USDA released its quarterly Grain Stocks report, revealing corn stocks at 4.644 billion bushels, soybeans at 1.008 billion bushels, and wheat at 851 million bushels, all slightly above trade expectations, market players say. The market response was muted, with corn and wheat futures declining due to the higher than anticipated inventories signaling weaker demand or slower exports, while soybeans saw a slight dip but remained resilient, supported by tighter acreage estimates from the concurrent USDA Acreage report. Market players noted the lack of surprises in the data, with some expressing frustration over the absence of price momentum despite tight old-crop stocks, particularly for soybeans, as weather and yield speculation began to be the market focus.
Market players described the report as a non-event, with corn and wheat facing downward pressure from the bearish stock figures, while soybeans showed mixed trading as funds adjusted positions. The report’s neutral tone, combined with favorable US growing conditions, kept volatility low, though some market players believe that heavy fund short positions in corn could spark a rally if acreage or yield estimates shift unexpectedly. With the Independence Day weekend approaching, grain markets appeared to pivot toward weather forecasts and global trade developments, sidelining the USDA data’s impact.
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Written by Murphy Campbell
