Traditionally, the farmed salmon market experiences strong demand from December through Mother’s Day, after which it begins to slow as the U.S. approaches the unofficial start of summer with Memorial Day weekend. However, the 2025 market is showing signs of softening earlier than usual. Both the fresh Chilean and European fillet markets have begun to slip, with supplies readily available and prices trending lower. Over the past week, the price of 3–4-pound fresh Chilean fillets declined by $0.30, or 3.6%. In addition, the 3–4-pound European fillet market has fallen $0.85—or 12%—since mid-April. This downturn is largely driven by supply outpacing demand. A deeper look at import data reveals notable increases: fresh fillet imports from Norway and the Netherlands (which processes Norwegian fish) rose by 37.3% and 16.2%, respectively, in the first quarter of 2025. Combined, these two sources contributed over 30 million pounds of fresh fillets by the end of March, capturing approximately 25% of the total market share.
Conversely, Chilean fresh fillet imports are down 8.6% year-over-year through Q1. Still, they followed a familiar seasonal pattern, with a sharp 18.7% increase in March compared to February.
Norwegian whole fish imports have surged dramatically, rising 136.2% compared to the same period in 2024. This growth in supply reflects a healthy biomass in Norway and has helped Norwegian fresh whole fish grow from 7% to 16% of the U.S. market share through March.
One of the most notable developments is that fresh European fillets are now priced on par with—or even below—fresh Chilean fillets. This inversion is unprecedented in the past 20 years. Historically, European fillets have consistently commanded a premium over Chilean counterparts, making this shift a significant and unexpected market dynamic. Retail remains a key driver in the fresh farmed salmon fillet category. The spot market depends heavily on retail activity and promotions. In 2025, retail buying opportunities have increased by nearly 12% over 2024. Despite the expanded promotional activity, average retail pricing is up only marginally—0.3% year-over-year.
Looking ahead, it will be interesting to observe whether retail continues to promote heavily into the summer months. Typically, salmon demand tapers off during this period, but with prices now well below historical averages—Chilean fillets are down 3.6%, and European fillets are a striking 34% below the 3-year average—there is strong potential for continued promotional support, possibly even outpacing that of 2024.
The Expana platform not only tracks farmed salmon price series, but also forecasts prices. Request a demo to find out how.
Image source: Shutterstock
Written by Janice Schreiber
