The 2025 Hard Winter Wheat Tour wrapped with scouts projecting a Kansas wheat crop notably stronger than last year’s, though persistent drought stress and disease concerns muted expectations. After visiting 449 fields across Kansas and parts of Nebraska and Oklahoma, the tour pegged the state’s average yield at 53 bushels per acre—up sharply from 46.5 bpa in 2024 and the second-highest tour estimate in two decades. But the group’s forecast total production was at 338.5 million bushels, falling short of the USDA’s May estimate of 345 million bushels, citing uncertainty around final grain fill and the impact of wheat streak mosaic virus.
Scouts reported high variability across the state, both between regions and within fields. While portions of southwest Kansas performed better than expected, typically reliable areas in the north-central and northwest showed signs of stress from poor fall emergence and spring drought. Yield swings of 20 to 40 bushels per acre were common within individual fields, driven by patchy development from inconsistent moisture and delayed emergence. Although April and May rains helped stabilize some stands, concerns lingered about whether the crop could finish strong without timely precipitation in the coming weeks.
Market players viewed the tour results as a cautiously positive signal for hard red winter wheat supplies but remained wary of production downgrades. The higher yield projections offer some relief to farmers, yet the uneven field conditions pose risks for quality and harvest logistics. Market players noted that better yields won’t shift market sentiment unless weather cooperates and prices rebound to improve grower margins. With the crop entering a critical phase, the coming weeks will determine whether Kansas delivers on the tour’s optimism or reverts to the setbacks of recent seasons.
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Written by Murphy Campbell
