Overview
Cashew prices fall as international demand from major markets tapers off ahead of the holiday season. The Expana Benchmark Price for WW320 cashew kernels (BRC shippers, FOB Vietnam) declined by $0.06/lb (-2%) in the four weeks leading up to December 12, settling at $3.47/lb. Weaker demand from the EU and the USA, along with slower-than-expected buying from China, contributed to this downward pressure.
Market Sentiment and Buyer Insights
“We are seeing some activity from the USA, but the EU has been a bit quiet,” noted one Indian trader in early December. Meanwhile, an Asia-based broker reported minimal sales into the US, while shipments to Europe and the Middle East have also slowed.
China’s reduced demand—contrary to earlier expectations—has added extra weight on prices. Although Chinese buyers are expected to return for last-minute volumes ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays, current market sentiment remains subdued.
Export and Import Data Support the Trend
Recent trade figures from Vietnam reflect the softening market conditions:
- November Exports: 61,040 tonnes, down 8,300 tonnes from October and 4.6% year-on-year (y-o-y).
- Year-to-Date (Jan-Nov) Exports: Up 22% y-o-y, reaching 711,500 tonnes by the end of November.
Despite strong cumulative exports for the year, November shipments to key destinations—the US, China, and the EU-plus-other markets—dropped 7%, 0.5%, and 5% y-o-y respectively, highlighting the current slowdown.
On the raw material side, Vietnam’s imports fell for the seventh consecutive month, down 40% y-o-y in November. This tightening supply has provided some price support in recent months, but current weak demand means cashew prices fall even with lower carry-out inventories in Vietnam.
Outlook
While lower inventories in Vietnam might have previously supported prices, the combination of slack demand from the EU, US, and a less enthusiastic Chinese buying season has contributed to recent price declines. As the market progresses through the holiday period and into the Lunar New Year, industry participants will watch closely to see if renewed demand can reverse the current trend where cashew prices fall amid subdued global interest.
Stay tuned for more updates on cashew prices, global trade data, and market insights.
