Soybean prices remained volatile during the week on renewed optimism, following conversations between the US and China, with market sources noting renewed buyer interest. Trade tensions between the two countries have led to a decline in US soybean exports to China thus far this season, with China expanding import sources to other regions – particularly Brazil and Argentina.
The USDA lowered its forecast for China’s soybean imports for the 2024/25 season in its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from 109 million mt to 108 million mt, citing changes in global trade patterns and policy adjustments in China. With US soybean plantings progressing positively, market participants have noted the importance of China’s demand.
Data revealed that by the second week of June 2024, China had already begun purchasing new-crop US soybeans; well ahead of the typical marketing year start in October, with 14 cargoes booked by the end of the month and a total of 95 cargoes (6.3 million mt) by August. Other destinations had purchased an additional 7.6 million mt, bringing total forward sales to 14 million mt by August 24. While this was a slower start compared to historical standards, it was still solid given the risks of a trade war, according to market sources. Currently, US new crop sales sit at 1 million mt, in line with 2024 levels. Market sources attribute US bean demand to rising bean premiums in Brazil.
After reaching a decade-low in April 2025, China’s soybean imports surged to a record high of 13.92 million mt in May, according to customs data released on June 9. This marks a 128.9% increase m-o-m and a 36.2% rise y-o-y, driven by normalized customs clearance processes and a recovery in the operating rates of crushing plants. Imports had slumped to a 10-year low of 6.08 million tonnes in April, due to prolonged customs delays and late shipments from Brazil, where heavy rains and logistical bottlenecks disrupted the usual cargo flow.
Most of China’s soybean imports came from top global producer Brazil, which typically exports the bulk of its soybean crop between March and June. According to government data, Brazil exported 14.10 million tonnes of soybeans in May, up from 13.44 million tonnes in the same month last year. Brazil’s grain exporters association (Anec) forecasts June soybean exports at 12.55 million tonnes, a decline from 13.8 million tonnes in June last year.
Image source: Getty
Written by Roxanne Nikoro
