On October 9, ABC released the September edition of its position report, updating the almond market’s view on supply and demand. Per the release, U.S. almond sellers shipped a total of 197 million pounds in September 2025, 8% below the September 2024 total and the lowest September total since 2022. Prior to the report, market participants surveyed by Expana provided an average estimate of 195 million pounds shipped, with a range of 190–215 million pounds.
Season-to-date (August-September), total shipments stand at 355 million pounds, lagging the 2024/25 pace by 7% and the three-year average pace by 13%. Of the 197 million pounds shipped in September, 49 million were shipped domestically (-12% y-o-y) while 148 million (-6% y-o-y) were shipped to international destinations. While the ABC forecast expects 75% of the crop to be exported throughout the year, the three-year average and early 2025/26 export shipments stand at 72% of the total.
Key destination highlights include: India with 28.1 million pounds for the month, bringing the YTD total 39% lower year over year; Europe received 42.3 million pounds, putting the YTD total 23% ahead of last year; the Middle East had 31.0 million pounds shipped, with the YTD total roughly even with the prior year; and China/Hong Kong was 78% behind year over year, with 1.4 million pounds shipped during the month.
Total commitments were reported at 549 million pounds, down 17.8% year over year. New sales totaled 219.5 million pounds, down 19.7% from September 2024 but 19.2% stronger month over month.
Crop receipts for the season were reported at 992 million pounds, with 733 million received during the month. For the same period last year, crop receipts were 1,035 million pounds total, with 744.5 million received during the month. Expana calculations show the crop was 38% received at the end of September 2024, versus 26% at the same point in 2023, underscoring that early-season receipts are unreliable indicators of total crop size while the 2025 crop remains incomplete.
Written by Nick Moss
