Written by Mark Ashworth, Chief Financial Officer, Expana

In today’s agrifood markets, volatility is the norm. Commodity costs can move 20–30% in a single quarter. Inflation, supply chain disruption, shifting demand-all of it makes margin protection and earnings predictability harder than ever. Traditional, reactive cost management is no longer enough. The real opportunity for CFOs is to turn price commodity volatility into a source of strategic, financial advantage.

The challenge is clear. Sixty-one percent of CFOs cite economic uncertainty as their top external risk (Deloitte, CFO Signals 2024). Companies with $500M+ COGS are seeing margins erode and earnings calls are increasingly shaped by unpredictable swings in input costs. Finance leaders are left managing siloed forecasts, often swinging ±15% on commodity-exposed categories. In short: a VUCA environment – volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous – where CFOs end up firefighting instead of steering strategy and see their credibility challenged as they flounder against the unpredictability of the world around them.

Using Predictive Commodity Data to Make Savings

The solution is predictive cost intelligence. With forward-looking data and forecasting, CFOs can anticipate risks before they hit the P&L, align decisions across finance, procurement and sales, and create greater confidence for boards and investors. With the right intelligence, CFOs can:

• Improve visibility into future cost trajectories on key commodities
• Optimize hedging and contracting strategies to protect margins
• Run scenario models that support investor communication and capital allocation

How Expana Enables Savings

This is where Expana comes in. We equip CFOs with the foresight and control to move from reactive expense management to strategic value creation. Our platform translates market signals into financial action. Customers use Expana to:

• Negotiate contracts with financial confidence
• Lock in hedges at the right time to stabilise earnings
• Eliminate weeks of manual reporting and reconciliation

The journey typically runs in three stages. First, visibility, linking full bills of material to live market dynamics. Then predictive planning, with multi-year forecasts to guide budgets, hedges, and capital deployment. Finally, strategic integration, where predictive intelligence informs product strategy, market positioning, and even M&A decisions.

The results speak for themselves:

• 4–7% COGS reduction in year one
• 4–6 hours a week saved on manual data gathering
• Budget variance reduced from ±15% to ±5% in commodity-exposed categories

In an environment where one bad quarter can wipe out a year’s profit, predictive intelligence is not optional. CFOs who master it not only protect margins but also create resilience, credibility, and growth capacity in the eyes of shareholders and the market.

Co-authored by: Luana Clapis, Chief Data Officer, Expana