As the 2024/25 Indian sugar crop season has ended, market participants have shifted focus to assess the upcoming season. Amid the forecast of positive weather, the predominant view is one of a bumper crop in the 2025/26 marketing year. On average, estimates of gross sugar production are expected to reach around 35 million metric tons, according to the last month’s data from the Tropical Research Services (TRS) team at Expana.
According to the National Federation of Sugar Cooperative Factories, India is set to produce surplus sugar for at least two consecutive years. Farmers are expanding cultivated area because of excess rainfall, boosting crop yields. The rebound in production would allow the world’s second-largest sugar producer to increase exports following restrictions set in 2023.
The favorable weather conditions will benefit the crop to be harvested during 2025/26 season, which begins in October. The rain will also support planting for harvest during the following year. The timeline for sugar cane from planting to harvest typically lasts 10 to 18 months. Therefore, growers planting this month will likely harvest their crop during the 2026/27 season.
For the 2024/25 marketing year to September, India’s net sugar production is anticipated to fall below consumption for the first time in eight years. The decrease is attributed to drought in 2023 that caused India’s government to limit sugar exports last year to maintain sufficient domestic supply. India’s exports averaged 6.8 million tons annually for the five years leading up to 2022/23.
Meanwhile, world sugar prices continued to be driven by the macroeconomic backdrop, with industry players citing fears of a global economic recession and weakening demand. As a result, July 2025 ICE NY #11 raw sugar futures traded for most of the month at or below the $0.18/lb threshold crossed on May 2, according to Expana (customer access only).
Despite relatively low world sugar prices leading to positive import margins for major destination markets, especially in China, sources state there is little indication of any uptick in demand. Additionally, shrinking US GDP growth in Q1 2025 has renewed concerns over a global economic recession. For the world sugar market, this translates to demand remaining below most participants’ expectations, with sources stating that a bearish sentiment is expected to prevail currently.
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Written by Andraia Torsiello
