Turkish Sultanas: supply and demand updates
The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has recently announced its decision to sell around 8,000 tonnes of sultanas, priced at TRY 80/kg for type 8 material and TRY 75/kg for type 7 material.
Despite this, prices continue to soar as availability in Turkey is tight. Market sources report offers from Turkish processors are scarce, as most of the 2023/24 sultana crop has been sold. The carry-out into the next campaign will be negligible.
The Expana Benchmark Prices for Turkish sultanas (type 9, RTU quality, FOB Turkey) reached $3,750/MT in the week of 15th May, an all-time high, up 15% m-o-m and an increase of 132% y-o-y ($1,615/MT in mid-May 2023).
For the upcoming 2024/25 campaign, the International Nut & Dried Fruit Council (INC) has recently published its early season projection, pegging the size of the crop at 250,000 tonnes, up 21% y-o-y but a significant decline compared to harvest volumes achieved between 2019 and 2022. This follows the lingering effects of the mildew disease which spread in vineyards last year after heavy rains hit key growing regions in May and June. Turkish authorities suggest the number of bunches per vine is smaller this year compared to last year.
On the demand side, Turkey exported 169,000 tonnes of sultanas between 1st September 2023 and 18th May 2024, a decline of 9% compared to the same period a year ago, according to data from EIB.
European processing tomato plantings impacted by rainfall in latest WPTC update
On the 17th of May 2024, the World Processing Tomato Council (WPTC) reported that processing tomato planting is underway in most Northern Hemisphere countries. However, it is facing delays in much of Western Europe due to persistent rainfall, which is expected to delay the harvest.
In France, unstable weather with heavy rain, strong winds, and fluctuating temperatures has delayed planting significantly. Planting began early on the 18th of March, only 50% of the planned 2,400 hectares have been planted. Harvest will likely start at the end of July and peak in late August. Field gate prices are around 140 euros in the southeast and 115 euros in the southwest.
Greece, benefiting from a very warm spring, has completed about 80-85% of planting, and planting should be completed by the end of May. Rains post-planting have set the stage for an early harvest around mid-July, with the forecast increased to 500,000 tonnes. Prices range from 135 to 155 euros delivered.
In Northern Italy, rainfall has delayed planting, with only 50-55% of surfaces planted. Planting completion is expected by mid-June, with cool temperatures slowing plant growth and causing harvest delays of one to two weeks. Prices for raw materials are set by cooperatives at 135-140 euros field gate, with private companies proposing around 130 euros ex-field, plus premiums for late harvests. In Southern Italy, planting is progressing better due to less rain, though low water availability in Puglia may reduce planted areas. The total processing tomato forecast for Italy is currently at 5.6 million tonnes.
Portugal has faced variable spring weather, delaying transplanting by two weeks. About 54-56% of the surface has been planted, with slowed development due to low temperatures. The forecast is 1.5 million tonnes. The delivered price of tomatoes ranges between 115 euros and 145 euros.
In Spain, Extremadura experienced a 10–15 day delay in transplanting due to rain, with ripening expected in the second half of August. Andalucía is nearing completion despite delays, with a late start expected. Northern regions are on schedule. The overall forecast for Spain is 2.8 million tonnes. Tomato price was negotiated individually by companies this year, ranging from 133 to 155 euros.
Almond prices firm on tightening availability
Prices firmed in the US almond markets last week with market participants reported a slowing in offers coming out of California. Market participants put this down to a lack of availability on many specific sizes and grades with one European trader stating, “I have plenty of demand but trying to get offers is like pulling teeth. Sellers just don’t have a lot of what buyers are looking for.”
Market participants observed the most tightness on higher quality kernels with smaller sized supreme and extra graded stocks hardest to come by. As a result prices firmed more strongly on higher quality grades with the assessment for NPX 23/25 being made at $2.42/lb, an increase of 11 cents/lb on the week. Smaller sized kernel of supreme and extra grade were not commonly offered or traded but were often at parity with 23/25 sizing or with only a difference of 1-2 cents between sizes.
