Late in January, the temperature in Brazil’s capital city called Brasília was 40 degrees Celsius (or 104 degrees Fahrenheit). Over 4,000 miles north, it was –6 degrees Celsius (or 20 degrees Fahrenheit). Parties from each region met virtually to discuss the current state of the country’s cocoa crop, and what might be in store for the future of Brazilian cocoa.
“In 2023, it was the goal of Inova Cacau to double Brazilian production in the next five years,” said Allana Rodrigues, Director of Institutional Relations at National Association of Cocoa Processing Industries (AIPC). “Now the goal is to reach 400,000 [metric] tons by 2030 to position Brazil as leader in sustainable cocoa production. Market volatility has been driven by supply shortages and highlights the need for global collaboration to diversify the market, and Brazil’s production can do that.”
Rodrigues acknowledged that Brazil may never match major players in the global cocoa market. However, she proposed that Brazilian cocoa could offer a solid, sustainable, and supplemental supply to the world’s cocoa inventory going forward. Or at the very least, Brazil could become self-sufficient in cocoa production. The country must import close to 40,000 metric tons (MT) to meet domestic demand.
Despite these goals, production took a step back in 2024.
“Last year, there was a decrease in receiving here,” said Rodrigues. “Brazil registered an 18.5% decrease compared to 2023. We received 179,431 MT of cocoa beans, and it was 220,303 in 2023.”
AIPC represents the major cocoa processors in Brazil—Barry Callebaut, Cargill, OFI, and IBC—grinding 93-95% of the cocoa produced in the South American country.
In 2024, “cocoa grinding declined by 9.5% compared to the previous year,” shared Rodrigues. “I think this reduction was driven by adverse climactic conditions, and disease. It highlights the need to meet domestic demand as the price of cocoa reached historic highs—something like a 150% increase. It reflects a significant imbalance between supply and demand, as well as the production crisis in key regions in Africa who have aging plantations.”
In 2024, Brazil’s cocoa grindings totaled 229,334 tons. Compare that to the 253,507 tons recorded in 2023. In Q4 2024, cocoa grindings also dropped for processors in North America and in Europe, Expana reported.
Nearby contracts for cocoa beans are valued at $10,514/MT. This value has fallen from an all-time high of $12,565/MT on December 18, 2024, according to Expana. At the end of January 2024, ICE NY contracts for cocoa beans were valued at $4,732/MT which represents a 122% price increase to date.
“I think it will depend on Africa’s results,” said Rodrigues when asked about the high price of cocoa. “We hear how they are doing, but we cannot know for sure. They are responsible for what’s going on with prices. But I do not believe prices are going to decrease to the levels seen at the beginning of 2024… It’s been crazy.”
Brazilian farmers are using the high price of cocoa to reinvest in sustainable agroforestry cocoa production, said Rodrigues who added that she’d heard African farmers with cocoa plantations did not do the same.
Currently, 80% of Brazilian cocoa is produced by farmers with agroforestry systems, a statistic that would be interesting to European buyers if Brazilian cocoa production is stabilized and ramped up.
“We are not exporting cocoa beans,” explained Rodrigues. “We export cocoa derivatives. And until we achieve 400,000 MT, we have time to be prepared to attend to EUDR objectives.”
The EU isn’t the focus for Brazilian cocoa producers either, shared Rodrigues. Despite reports of dropping production, exports of cocoa derivatives have increased by 6% in 2024 to countries like the US and Argentina.
“Our demand will not decrease because we have a big market here in Brazil and also in other countries,” she said. “Despite the downturn in production, Brazil has seen progress… Brazilian cocoa has something more. We are already planting in a sustainable way. Instead of deforesting areas, we are recovering… Traditionally, cocoa is growing in Brazil with the Atlantic Forest and in the Amazon Forest.”
If plans go accordingly, Brazilian cocoa will be synonymous with sustainability, suggested Rodrigues. For example, cocoa is often planted alongside crops like palms that bear acai berries.
“We are developing a project with a Brazilian agency to improve our cocoa brand,” she said. “A lot of countries don’t know we produce cocoa… They don’t know cocoa is native to the Amazon region.”
One of the ways Brazilian cocoa productions will increase is via investment in non-traditional growing regions, said Rodrigues. While the Southern region of Bahia is the main growing region, farmers are growing more cocoa in the states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rondônia, and western Bahia too.
“Our processors’ biggest wins have been maintaining the cocoa supply chain’s resilience,” said Rodrigues. “We are still producing, making partnerships with the private sector, with the government, with producers, and we are investing in public policy to keep growing. The challenge is to maintain our dynamic in spite of price and stability. We will continue forward because our productivity will grow… We strongly believe that one of the ways to balance supply and demand in the world is to focus on other regions to compliment Africa, and we believe Brazil can be one of these regions.”
