World grain production is set to reach record levels in 2025/26, with abundant wheat, barley, and corn supplies keeping prices subdued across major exporters, Expana said. The CME December 2025 corn contract traded at $165 per metric ton on October 6, while SRW wheat followed a similar downward trend amid widespread upward revisions to global harvests.
“The supply outlook for world grain markets in 2025/26 is extremely abundant, and global demand levels will struggle to absorb such large availability,” Expana noted. Wheat output is revised up in Australia, the U.S., Russia, Canada, and Kazakhstan, while barley production reached one of its highest levels in two decades due to record yields in the EU, Russia, and Australia. Corn output also hit a new record, led by gains in the U.S., Ukraine, and South America.
Global animal feed demand of grains is projected to rise 2.4% year-on-year, supported by low prices but tempered by competition from soymeal and rapeseed meal. Human and industrial wheat use is expected to grow 1%, led by India and Turkey, while corn demand for ethanol is forecast to rise 2.8%, driven by Brazil, India, and the U.S.
Wheat trade is expected to expand sharply, with increased imports in the Middle East and Asia, while barley trade is likely to contract due to reduced feed demand. Corn trade growth will depend on whether China resumes large-scale imports. World stocks of wheat, barley, and corn are all expected to increase, reaching what Expana described as “a very comfortable, potentially heavy, level for the group of main exporters as a whole.” The report concluded that cereal prices, “in particular the price of corn, have downside potentials for marketing year 2025/26.”
Image source: Shutterstock/svetakost
Written by Fei Thompson
