For the 2025/2026 marketing year, Argentina is being viewed as one of the most competitive wheat origins globally, according to market participants. Sources said that abundant soil moisture during key development stages and an expansion in planted area have driven a sharp rise in production forecasts, significantly strengthening supply outlooks. 

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) currently projects total production at 22 million mt for 2025/2026, from a harvested area of 6.7 million hectares, up notably from 18.6 million mt in the previous season. If achieved, this would be just 400,000 mt below the record 2021/2022 crop. Yields are estimated at 3.28 mt/ha for 2025/2026, compared to 3.45 mt/ha in 2021/2022 and 2.95 mt/ha last year. The Rosario Grains Exchange has issued an even higher forecast of 23 million mt, which they say is supported by strong growing conditions and improved crop management. Sources described the current crop as being in exceptional condition, with one trader noting that “wheat has never looked like this in Argentina”. 

The USDA places Argentina’s five-year average wheat production at 17.35 million mt. 

However, attention is turning toward weather risks, as reports indicate that late-season frosts have appeared in several southern growing regions. Market participants are monitoring the situation closely to assess potential damage. Analysts noted that while heavy rainfall had previously been viewed as the main climate risk, falling temperatures could pose a greater threat, especially if the continued cooling of the Equatorial Pacific limits rainfall frequency and intensity in the coming weeks, which sources say is likely. 

Although the impact of frost remains uncertain, BAGE has warned that the crop is in a sensitive growth phase. Some sources added that high soil moisture levels may have partially offset the effects of colder temperatures, as elevated humidity can help reduce frost damage. 

According to reports, rains earlier in the month temporarily slowed harvest activity. As of October 29, 8.4% of the planned area had been harvested, slightly ahead of the five-year average. Farmers noted that while many fields remain temporarily inaccessible, conditions are expected to improve significantly in the coming weeks. 

In northern producing regions, sources said that yields have so far been above average. Traders expect a clearer picture of total supply potential to emerge as harvesting progresses.  

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