Canada’s Prairie provinces recorded rainfall of twice the expected amount in August, a development that touches key Canadian crops such as canola, oats, linseed and lentils, according to the Expana Global Weather Report – August 2025. (customer access only)
Figure 1. 2025 August precipitation percentage change compared to the 30-year average in major Canadian agricultural provinces.
In the southern rapeseed-growing belts, the wet spells were largely welcomed after a dry spell earlier in the season, potentially supporting yields. By contrast, western regions faced harvest delays and heightened concerns about disease and yield reductions as the excess moisture persisted.
Canola production forecasts remain mixed. Overall, production is expected to be higher than last year and above the five-year average, but the regional divergence underscores ongoing uncertainty about final yields.
“Despite the wet weather in August, we estimate Canadian production of canola at 20 million mt, the highest level since 2018. Indeed, we remain overall quite optimistic regarding yields, which despite not being estimated at a record high level, should be well above the 5-year average,” commented Benoît Fayaud, Senior Manager – Grains & Crop Analysis, Expana.
Oats, meanwhile, face weather-related pressures as heavy rainfall can impede seed sprouting, delay germination and saturate soils, thus reducing oxygen and hindering plant respiration. According to the Expana Global Weather Report – August 2025, Canadian oat supply is likely to remain tight, even as acreage rose by about 3% from a year earlier. However, this is still roughly 11% below the five-year average.
Saskatchewan, the main Canadian linseed and lentils production province, is also exposed to the twin risks of heavy rainfall: damage to flowers, diminished pollinator activity and an uptick in fungal diseases.
The report shows that early lentil crops have already suffered rain-induced damage, and harvesting ripe lentils has become more challenging, raising spoilage concerns. Yet total lentil production is expected to remain resilient overall, as certain crops benefited from the extra moisture.
Co-authored by: Benoît Fayaud, Senior Manager – Grains & Crop Analysis
Image source: Adobe
Written by Demelza Knight
