Coconut oil prices reached a record high in July, further weakening demand. The Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) for Crude Coconut Oil Cif Rotterdam was assessed at $2,750/mt on July 11; a record high. This represents a 9.6% increase month-on-month (m-o-m) and a 96.4% rise year-on-year (y-o-y).
Tightening coconut oil supply has kept coconut oil prices at a widening premium to palm kernel oil, a close substitute. As of July 14, the EBP for Crude Coconut Oil Cif Rotterdam is trading $1,025/mt higher than the EBP for Crude Palm Kernel Oil Cif Rotterdam, compared to approximately $20/mt in early Q1. Developments in the palm kernel oil market, as a close substitute, will be a key factor to watch for coconut oil prices.
Export registrations from the Philippines, a top coconut oil producer and exporter, reached just 209,000 tonnes in April–June 2025, a five-year low and a sharp drop from 377,000 tons in the same period last year, according to data from the United Coconut Association of the Philippines (UCAP). While actual exports may be slightly higher, the steep decline in registrations reflects both reduced production and demand rationing on the back of elevated prices. The supply shortfall has been exacerbated by falling shipments from Indonesia.
The coconut oil market has also been driven by various policies, including biodiesel policies. Market sources state that the increase in the mandatory biodiesel admixture in the Philippines from 2% to 3% in October 2024 has further limited the country’s coconut oil export supplies in the 2024/25 season. The Philippines government plans to increase the biodiesel blend to 5% over the next three years.
In the US, President Trump has announced 20% tariffs on imports from the Philippines starting August 1. The US is responsible for approximately 23% of global coconut oil imports, majorly from the Philippines. In 2024, 29% of coconut oil exports from the Philippines went to the US. Trade tensions will be a watch-out factor for the coconut oil market as trade flows could be disrupted.
Image source: Getty
Written by Roxanne Nikoro
