Hurricane Melissa formed in the Caribbean Sea on October 21. Traveling slowly and rapidly intensifying, Melissa is forecast to make landfall in southwest Jamaica on October 28 as a Category 5 Hurricane, with windspeeds up to 175 mph. After Jamaica, the hurricane is projected to make a second landfall in southeast Cuba at Category 4 strength the next day, before moving through the Bahamas and continuing toward the North Atlantic Ocean.   

Figure 1. Approximate path and projected impact zones of Hurricane Melissa, which reached Category 5 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Melissa is expected to bring heavy rainfall, landslides and storm surges to affected regions, and is projected to be the most destructive storm on record to hit Jamaica. Mass evacuations are underway across the island, with particular concern for Kingston’s low-lying areas. 

Advice given to Farmers 

According to the Jamaican Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Mining, the island’s Rural Agricultural Development Authority (RADA), farmers across the island had been encouraged to harvest mature crops ahead of Hurricane Melissa, to minimize loss. Farmers will also be urged to look out for diseases that can affect their crops following the hurricane, since heavy rainfall creates ideal conditions for pests and pathogens to thrive, damaging crops and causing setbacks to the productivity of fields.   

Melissa is also arriving during a time Caribbean farmers traditionally get their crops in the field ahead of the Christmas season. “Farmers, fishers, they look forward to the uptick in demand that comes with Christmas,” Floyd Green, Jamaica’s Minister of Agriculture, told the Miami Herald. “It’s just a bad time in the farming cycle.”  

Potential Impacts on Crops

According to Demelza Knight, Weather and Crop Researcher, Expana, there are concerns for greenhouse crops such as Scotch bonnet peppers, tomatoes, and watermelons, as winter is regarded as the best growing season. Fears also revolve around potential soil erosion and saltwater intrusion inland, affecting future arability. Other key crops in southwest Jamaica, including yams, sugar cane, citrus fruits, and allspice, could also sustain damage.   

As the world’s top allspice producer with significant exports, Jamaica could see potential impacts on global supply, particularly if the drying stage is disrupted. Premium coffee grown in the highlands could also be at risk, Knight warned.   

Meanwhile, eastern Cuba is a key region for coffee and cocoa cultivation. Negative impacts of Hurricane Melissa could therefore squeeze national supply. Flash flooding and destructive waves are expected along Cuba’s coastline, with train, bus and flight services suspended, Knight added. 

Simon Duke, Managing Editor – EMEA
and Demelza Knight, Weather and Crop Researcher
Expana

Image source: Getty