The Mexican tomato season this year has unfolded more slowly than in recent years, according to key industry participants, and this subdued start is occurring amid a significant shift in trade policy that has introduced fresh uncertainty into the market.
In mid-July, the US government formally withdrew from the long-standing Tomato Suspension Agreement (TSA) with Mexico and imposed an antidumping tariff of 17.09% on most fresh tomatoes imported from Mexico. The tariff was calculated to reflect the degree to which Mexican tomato exporters were allegedly selling into the US at below fair market value—a practice US officials and growers classify as dumping that harms domestic producers.
The TSA, first established in 1996 and most recently renewed in 2019, had previously suspended antidumping investigations as long as Mexican growers adhered to agreed minimum prices and export protocols. With negotiations failing in 2025, the suspension agreement lapsed, triggering the antidumping duty.
Tariff Objectives and Contested Outcomes
The US Commerce Department justified the tariff as a measure intended to allow US tomato growers to compete more fairly in the marketplace, responding to longstanding concerns from domestic producers—particularly in Florida—who have seen market share erode as Mexican imports expanded. Mexico now supplies an estimated 70–90% of the US fresh tomato market, a sharp increase from roughly 30% two decades ago.
Supporters of the tariff argue that it will help stabilize the domestic tomato industry by narrowing the pricing gap between imported and domestically grown product. Critics, however, including importers, retailers, and foodservice operators, caution that the tariff effectively functions as a consumption tax, potentially driving higher prices for US buyers and consumers. Concerns remain that availability of popular tomato varieties—such as grape, cherry, and vine-ripened tomatoes, which are predominantly sourced from Mexico—could tighten, while overall demand may soften if prices rise.
Policy Ripple Effects and Exporter Response
Mexico’s government and grower organizations have criticized the tariff as punitive and economically disruptive. In response, Mexican authorities have implemented minimum export pricing mechanisms across tomato categories in an effort to preserve trade flows and reduce market distortion.
While the full price impact of the tariff has yet to materialize, its influence is already evident in production planning. The added cost burden and uncertainty surrounding net returns have contributed to more conservative decision-making among Mexican growers. In key production regions such as Sinaloa, plantings are reported to be down 18–25% year over year, reflecting efforts to limit exposure amid unclear demand signals and pricing outcomes.
Seasonal Pricing Dynamics Disrupted
Historically, tomato prices strengthen in late September and early October as summer production winds down and Mexican volumes decline ahead of peak winter supply. This year, that seasonal price lift failed to materialize, despite expectations that the tariff would amplify upward pressure.
As the market moves deeper into the Sinaloa season, reduced acreage, muted price response, and ongoing tariff pressure have left the tomato market in a state of heightened uncertainty. Market participants continue to closely monitor supply progression and demand trends to determine whether traditional seasonal pricing patterns will re-emerge later in the winter or if volatility will persist into the next production cycle.
Image source: Adobe
Written by Holly Bianchi
