Article updated: September 16th 2025

HPAI Outbreak Summary: 

On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, approximately 2.10 million turkeys have been lost to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in 2025. This is up 68% year-over-year (YoY) and is down 67% from 2022 when the outbreak began. Of the turkeys impacted this year, 4% have been commercial breeder hens, 1% have been commercial breeder replacement hens, and 95% have been commercial meat birds. There have been 12 unique states impacted which one less than the largest YTD value since the start of the outbreak, up 50% YoY and down 8% from 2022. These are California, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and South Dakota. There have been 29 unique counties impacted YTD, up 45% YoY and down 48% from 2022.  

Impact of HPAI on US Turkey Exports and Pricing

HPAI has had a major impact in the worldwide turkey market. One of the biggest competitors to the US on both the global and domestic stages, Chile, exited the market in 2024 due to disease-related concerns. This resulted in Brazil filling in some of the gaps that Chile left. However, on May 15th, Brazil confirmed their first commercial case of HPAI. While this case was detected in chickens, the positive detection resulted in many countries closing their borders to Brazilian production, which forced buyers to turn elsewhere, including to the US to purchase at a much higher price.  

Limited Turkey Parts and Scarce Raw Materials 

Previous lackluster demand for whole birds, along with a robust call for parts and raw materials resulted in a wide price gap between the complexes. Now, with Thanksgiving approaching, buyers search for whole turkeys but find very limited availability as many processors choose to allocate more production toward cut up and deboning to take advantage of the much higher prices for these items. In turn, this has been driving a bullish whole turkey market. 

Market Imbalance for Turkey Parts and Raw Materials 

HPAI-related losses influenced some key domestic and international players to exit the market last year and early this year. Demand for items such as ground turkey and deli meats is active, but there are fewer sellers on the market to help fulfill needs. While some buyers have stepped away from the market when possible, those that need production to fulfill their own contractual obligations pay steep premiums for most items. 

One of the most talked about price increases has been fresh tom breast meat, which, on September 11th, climbed to a new all-time high of $6.71 and has since continued to trend upward.  This is notable as the last time this mark was reached, the market plateaued for approximately four and a half months before absolutely tanking, which resulted in a sharp downhill slide for the majority of the turkey market. 

Outlook: Walking On Eggshells

While recent months show signs of slightly increased production, year-to-date eggs set and poult placements remain at a record low. On top of that, the fall migration has brought more cases of HPAI, further limiting the volume of turkey that can be offered out of the processing plants. While many participants are optimistic that fewer birds will be lost to avian metapneumovirus this fall with the implementation of new vaccines, the ongoing HPAI outbreak and already limited production capabilities continue to concern both sellers and buyers. Market players try to balance out the worries of having enough production with the fear that sharply increasing prices could squash demand for years to come.  

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