Vietnam’s Central Highlands, core to global robusta coffee supply, saw unusually intense rainfall throughout most of November following Typhoon Kalmaegi on 6 November. The storm’s landfall triggered widespread precipitation across coffee-growing districts, and wet conditions persisted for nearly three weeks before easing in the final days of the month. Although late-month weather returned to a more typical dry pattern, cumulative rainfall reached record levels in many provinces.
Weather shift restores momentum
According to Expana’s Fundamentals Team, cumulative rainfall in 2025 now stands 31% above normal in Dak Lak and 30% above normal in Dak Nong, with Gia Lai 7% above normal. The late-month transition to typically dry conditions drew a quick response from growers, who moved rapidly to resume picking and drying. According to recent field surveys, by the first week of December the 2025/26 harvest was roughly 49% complete, equating to around 15.4 million bags, bringing progress broadly back toward historical pace.
Selling activity weighs on prices
Improved field access and drying capacity fed directly into a rise in physical availability. Farmer selling picked up, pressuring local spot prices and narrowing export differentials. Coffee Robusta diff fob VN EBP (CDV1) traded at discounts of around $270/MT to the F26 contract and $150/MT to H26 at the week’s low.
Market sentiment remains cautious, with industry sources citing ongoing price volatility, restricted credit lines for domestic traders, and limited appetite from international merchants to take forward positions in an inverted futures market. While bank lending has expanded compared with mid-year, it remains below the levels required to comfortably finance stocks at current prices.
Quality risks temper stable crop view
The headline crop outlook for 2025/26 is still steady in volume terms, but November’s excessive rainfall may yet leave a mark on quality. Saturated soils and compressed harvest schedules have prompted more strip-picking, removing cherries indiscriminately, while earlier drying delays risk uneven moisture content in stored parchment.
Should drying windows shorten again in December, analysts caution that bean uniformity could suffer, potentially influencing grades and blend suitability despite the absence of significant volume loss.
Written by Sammy Rolls
