Romania’s corn and sunflower harvests are facing elevated risks after July temperatures rose as much as 3°C above average across key growing regions, indicates the Expana Global Weather Report – July 2025 (Customer access only). The hotter, drier conditions have reduced soil moisture and disrupted crop development, raising concerns about yields ahead of September’s harvest.
For corn, the higher temperatures combined with reduced rainfall are impairing flowering and slowing the grain-filling process. If hot weather persists, Romania’s corn yields could fall below expectations.
Sunflower crops, particularly in the country’s southern regions, are also vulnerable. Excessive heat during flowering can reduce seed size and oil content, while dryness during bud formation can impair pollen production and lower yields.
Weather patterns in August will likely be decisive in shaping both corn and sunflower outcomes for the 2025 harvest.
Figure 1. Romania’s 2025 July maximum temperature anomaly from the 30-year average.
Figure 2. Romania’s 2025 July precipitation percentage change compared to the 30-year average.
“After a very bad 2024-harvest, the situation is once again taking a turn for the worst for summer crops in Romania,” commented Aurélien Blary, Crop Analyst, Expana. “In tandem with a lower acreage, corn and sunflower production are both forecast sharply down year-on-year, respectively by 10% and 16%. Romanian corn production would thus slump to its lowest level since the disastrous harvest of 2007.”
Erick Kambayeko, Crop Analyst, Expana, echoed Blary’s comments: “The above is quite the conditions reported in the Southeast European countries, in the Danube producing areas. In Bulgaria, for example, severe drought exacerbated by high temperature is taking a toll on summer crops yield potentials. Some analysts are forecasting the poorest grain maize yields of the last 20 years.
“Market players believe that this development could be a significant factor driving down total EU corn production in the 2025/2026 season,” highlighted Ben Barritt, Grains Market Reporter, Expana.
Referring to the August 12 USDA WASDE report, Barritt pointed out that total EU corn production was revised down by 2 million mt month-on-month to a total of 58 million mt. If the season concludes around this figure, then it would be below the 59.3 million mt harvested in 2024/2025.
By Simon Duke, Managing Editor – EMEA
Demelza Knight, Weather and Crop Researcher
James Tyler, Weather and Crop Researcher
Aurélien Blary, Crop Analyst
Erick Kambayeko, Crop Analyst
Ben Barritt, Grains Market Reporter
Image source: Getty
Written by Simon Duke
