Tropical Cyclone Koji made landfall in Queensland in early January, triggering widespread flooding across the state’s northwest, according to the Expana Global Weather Report – January 2026 (customer access only). An initial disaster impact estimated about 68,000 head of livestock losses, though officials warned the toll could climb beyond 100,000 as assessments continued.
As Queensland holds the country’s largest beef cattle herd, accounting for roughly 44% to 49% of Australia’s national herd, the scale of exposure underscored the potential risk to beef supply.
Figure 1. Australia’s 2026 January precipitation percentage change compared to the 30-year average and the approximate path and impact zones of Tropical Cyclone Koji, which reached tropical storm strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale in January.
Surviving cattle were left stranded on isolated pockets of land and faced hazards including saltwater crocodiles. The more immediate challenge, however, was widespread damage to fencing, roads and transport routes, which had created logistical bottlenecks and slowed the movement of livestock to processing plants, explained Junie Lin, Market Analyst at Expana.
Key processing plants in the affected regions continued operating below capacity through January. Seasonal disruptions are not unusual in northern Queensland, where summer rains and flooding are common, but industry sources described this event to Expana as the most severe since 2019.
Holiday shutdowns over Christmas and New Year helped cushion the immediate blow to beef production, as slaughter schedules were already reduced.
Further south, bushfires and heatwaves compounded pressure on grazing conditions, with sheep pastures bearing the brunt of the impact compared with cattle.
The impact of recent weather disruptions appears to have eased, with weekly slaughter numbers rebounding to near record highs by early-February. Cattle kills climbed above 158,000 head for the week, according to Meat and Livestock Australia.
Australia is consistently the world’s second largest beef exporter after Brazil, shipping about a record 1.54 million MT in 2025. Around 70% of national production is exported, with key destinations including the US, China, Japan and broader Asia.
However, the heavy rainfall might have benefited crops. The rain enabled the sowing of sorghum and mungbeans, and sugar cane growers welcomed the rain. Some predict the best crop in up to five years, and Australia is a major exporter of these commodities.
Co-authored by:
Thess Mostoles, Editor
Junie Lin, Market Analyst
Image source: Getty
Written by Demelza Knight
