Agrifood for thought podcast

In this episode of Agrifood for Thought, host Jamie Chadwick is joined by Expana senior forecast analyst Amanda Rastovic to unpack how the Iran war is reshaping energy markets and what it means for food and agriculture.

Seven months in, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is still operating abnormally, with war risk insurance now running at 6 to 10% of a vessel’s hull value, up from about 0.2 to 0.25% before the conflict.

Amanda explains why strategic reserves are running low, how attacks on Gulf refineries are tightening diesel supply, and why Expana’s crude oil forecast puts the lower end of its next target range at $135. The conversation then moves to fertilizer, where nitrogen prices sit 23% above January levels and phosphates jumped 25 to 30% after the strait closed, setting up a costly round of 2027 planting decisions. They also share Expana’s finding that diesel’s effect on retail food prices is statistically flat once feed costs and general food inflation are controlled for. For now, processors and retailers appear to be absorbing the extra cost, but that cushion is finite. Amanda expects price increases to show up selectively, starting with beef and coffee.

The episode closes with a look at consumer sentiment, where 56% of consumers say high prices are hurting their finances, and a pointer to Expana’s article on page 30 of the Dow Jones Energy report, “Running on Empty: Diesel Markets in Volatile Times.”

In this episode of Expana’s Agrifood for Thought podcast, Patricia Mendes, former Vice President of Global Sourcing & Transformation and Vice President of International Zone at Kraft Heinz, explores how procurement has evolved into a strategic business function.

Drawing on her experience at major international companies, Mendes discusses how procurement can balance cost control and consumer affordability, manage commodity risks and bring cost-of-goods-sold (COGS) discussions to board level. She highlights AI’s potential to improve market analysis, forecasting and strategic decision-making, while stressing the importance of combining global purchasing power with local market expertise.

Mendes also examines the value of sustainable supplier partnerships and explains why procurement leaders must develop stronger business leadership, invest in talent and align their strategies with wider corporate objectives to deliver long-term value. Patricia will be at Expana’s Agrifood Intelligence Summit, which takes place in Chicago on November 17.

Simon Duke speaks with Expana’s Senior Manager of Grains and Oilseeds Benoît Fayaud and Industrials Market Reporter Greg Potter.

Benoît Fayaud examines the increasingly disrupted Black Sea grain trade, with Ukrainian and Russian exports falling sharply after the closure of Black Sea ports. Looking further ahead, Benoît says the current market is being driven more by Black Sea disruption than El Niño, although a prolonged El Niño could create significant risks in 2027/28.

Greg Potter focuses on plastics used in food and beverage packaging. He explains how US tariffs have shifted much of the trade-policy complexity downstream toward converted products, while higher crude and naphtha prices are affecting resin markets unevenly. He also discusses major new capacity, global plant closures and the potential impact of disrupted Middle East exports on 2027 pricing.

A look at China’s shifting trade policies, the state of the U.S. cattle herd, and more with Expana’s top beef market analysts.

This week’s episode kicks off with a news roundup covering significant regulatory changes, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions. The FDA has proposed mandatory notification requirements for food additives and feed ingredients as part of efforts to increase food supply transparency. Meanwhile, escalating Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian Black Sea ports are reshaping global grain and oilseed markets. A devastating 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck Colombia’s coffee-growing region, creating uncertainty amid record-low global coffee stocks. 

Featured guest Andrew Woods, Expana senior market reporter, brings expertise in container glass and energy markets. Woods discusses the geopolitical standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for oil prices, supply chains, and regional stability. He provides analysis on current market conditions and long-term recovery timelines for regional infrastructure.

Greg Potter, Expana’s North America market reporter for feed additives, examines the reshaping of the USA feed additive supply chain amid Chinese overcapacity, tariffs, and trade enforcement actions. 

The global seafood trade is a complex web of species, product forms, production regions, and seasonality. Join Jamie and special guest Ryan Doyle in episode 43 of Agrifood for thought, as they dive into the deep waters of trade policy and the latest round of tariff news. 

Ryan has also written up his analysis of the new tariff implications on seafood here. 

Simon Duke opens with a brief news round-up: USMCA non-renewal in favour of bilateral US trade deals with Canada and Mexico, EU Deforestation Regulation expansion to include coffee and palm oil derivatives, and Fourth of July grilling demand dynamics.

Murphy Campbell (Grains and Oilseeds Reporter, Expana) covers the USDA’s June Acreage Report — wheat planted acres at a 149-year low, corn surprising to the upside despite Iran-driven fertilizer cost spikes — before examining the EPA’s record 2026–27 renewable fuel mandate, which is doubling soybean oil demand and acting as a domestic price floor amid global trade uncertainty.

Andrew Kanyemba (Senior Grains Analyst, Expana) provides a firsthand crop tour account from France. French wheat yields have been revised down to 6.9 t/ha and corn harvest cut from 12 to 9.2 million tonnes — the country’s smallest in decades. 

Consumers are demanding more protein… in everything. Food companies are responding to the challenge. Listen now.

In episode 40 of Agrifood for thought, we return with a new format, featuring guests.

We kick off with a news round-up (Middle East conflict situation, Super El Nino). Then follows a FIFA Football 2026 World Cup update (featuring guests Jaime Almeida, Market Reporter – Beef at Expana, talking about Mexican trends; Ryan Gallagher, Editor at Expana, discussing US beer trends; and an account of a recent interview Simon Duke had with the National Restaurant Association).

The episode concludes with a brief segment by Lisa Guiraud, Commercial Manager, Events at Expana, about Expana’s Women in Food & Agriculture (WFA) mentorship program.

In this episode, we welcome Thess Mostoles from the Expana Editorial team to share insights from Fruit Logistica 2026 in Berlin.

With conversations spanning shifting trade routes, climate challenges, logistical bottlenecks, and product innovations, Thess offers a comprehensive view of how the sector is navigating supply chain unpredictability and evolving consumer demands.

From expanding blueberry exports in Latin America to new hypoallergenic apple varieties in Europe, this episode explores the resilience and adaptability shaping fresh produce markets today.

In this episode of Agrifood for thought, host Simon Duke discusses the dynamic and challenging landscape of the food additives sector in early 2026.

We begin with the global infant formula recalls triggered by cereulide toxin found in arachidonic acid (ARA) oil supplied to major manufacturers like Nestlé, Danone, and Lactalis. The contamination highlights vulnerabilities in global ingredient supply chains and has led to widespread recalls across more than 50 countries. 

The episode then explores the US “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) initiative, led by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. MAHA emphasizes reducing exposure to synthetic additives, especially artificial food dyes, which the FDA aims to phase out through voluntary industry commitments by 2026–2027. 

Attention also turns to new European Commission regulations tightening safety standards on six common food additives with phased compliance deadlines aimed at preventing supply shocks.