UK beef production totaled 300,000 tons between January and May 2025, marking a 10,000 tons (3%) decline compared to the same period in 2024, according to the latest data. Monthly output has consistently lagged 2024 levels, underscoring a persistent downward trend and increasing concerns over supply constraints in the second half of 2025.
Despite lower production volumes, slaughter rates remained strong in the first half of 2025. In May, prime cattle slaughter rose by 3% month-on-month to 178,000 head. Market participants suggest this uptick may reflect producers capitalizing on recent strong prices, with elevated returns incentivizing early finishing. However, on a year-on-year basis, slaughter numbers were down by 4%, reinforcing forecasts of tighter supply ahead.
On the trade front, high volumes of beef from South America, Australia, and New Zealand have been entering the UK market. Industry sources indicate that retailers and wholesalers are stockpiling in anticipation of peak Christmas demand. However, concerns have emerged following reports of Uruguayan beef being sold in UK supermarkets.
Both the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) and the Ulster Farmers’ Union (UFU) have urged retailers to prioritize domestically produced beef, citing the UK’s higher animal welfare standards. This could bring the volume and sourcing of imports under greater scrutiny in the coming months. Adding to the complexity, Irish beef production is projected to decline by 6–7% year-on-year in 2025, which may further reduce export volumes to the UK, a key market for Irish beef.
Overall, the outlook for UK beef remains uncertain. While prices have eased slightly in recent weeks due to buyers’ resistance across the supply chain, they remain significantly higher than in the same period last year. The combination of tightening domestic supply, volatile imports, and evolving consumer sentiment continues to cast a shadow over the UK beef industry as it moves into the latter half of 2025.
The Expana Benchmark Price (EBP) for UK BEEF Trim 70% VL – Standard reached an average value of £5.8/kg, up 3.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 54.7% y-o-y in the week of June 16, 2025. Similarly, EBP for UK BEEF Whole Chuck – Under Thirty Months reached an average value of £8.1/kg, up 5.2% m-o-m and 40.9% y-o-y.
Written by Rutika Ghodekar
