Nearby ICE NY #11 (customer access only) world sugar futures declined 3% w-o-w and nearly 5% on the month. The decrease came as the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reported it has requested to export two million metric tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season beginning in October.
Last week, the ICE NY #11 sugar price fell to roughly four-year lows as the outlook for global sugar production continues to grow. The expectation of higher sugar exports from India is supporting bearish sugar prices as abundant rains could produce a bumper sugar crop.
In June, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that the country’s 2025/26 sugar production would rise 19% y-o-y, totaling 34.9 million metric tons. This would follow a 17.5% y-o-y decline in India’s sugar production in 2024/25, a five-year low totaling 26.2 million metric tons, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association.
The USDA stated in its bi-annual report that 2025/26 global sugar production will climb nearly 5% to a record 189.31 million metric tons, and human sugar consumption will increase slightly, also reaching a record of 177.92 million metric tons.
Also, the USDA predicts India’s sugar production to increase 25% y-o-y, reaching 35.3 million metric tons based on favorable weather conditions and increased sugar acreage. As the world’s second-largest sugar producer, these positive production figures and potential uptick in India’s sugar exports could continue to push futures prices downward.
Currently, India primarily exports sugar to countries in Southeast Asia and the Middle East; with Indonesia and Bangladesh being major destinations. Despite US tariffs of 50% remaining on Brazil and India, the Indian Prime Minister Modi and US President Trump expressed positivity that the respective trade teams would reach an agreement, according to their latest social media posts. (customer access only)
Written by Andraia Torsiello
