FAQs

Cost estimates made at the start of an NPD cycle are rarely accurate by launch. A cost model integrated into the process updates as market prices move, so the business case reflects a live view of input costs rather than a snapshot from six months ago.

It gives procurement an independent view of what underlying inputs have actually done in the market. When a supplier claims costs are rising, a benchmark model built on live market data can validate or challenge that with evidence. The negotiation shifts from opinion to fact.

Key factors include slaughter volumes, carcass weights, pork cutout values, feed costs, export flows, freezer inventories, retail promotions, foodservice demand, disease risk and seasonal buying patterns. Specific cuts such as pork belly, ribs, ham and trimmings can also behave differently depending on demand and availability.

A pork price forecast is a forward-looking view of how pork prices may develop over a specific period. It considers current prices, supply conditions, demand signals, export activity, feed costs, inventories, seasonal trends and wider economic factors. Expana’s pork price forecasts help buyers understand potential market direction and pricing risk.

The picture is mixed but generally more resilient than Colombia. Brazil has seen favourable conditions and is expected to deliver a stronger harvest. Peru and Ecuador have both had broadly stable outlooks with no major disruptions. Colombia’s weather-driven decline stands out as the exception in the region rather than the rule.

It is less about weather and more about price expectations. Producers who have grown accustomed to five years of elevated prices are reluctant to sell at current levels, hoping prices will recover. This is slowing the flow of coffee to market independently of any weather-related supply issues.

Physical coffee differentials have tightened sharply. Expana’s Benchmark Price assessment for Colombian Arabica differentials nearly doubled between December 2025 and April 2026, moving from USc 22/lb to USc 40/lb — reflecting the reduced availability of Colombian beans in the market.

Petrobras sets domestic gasoline prices in Brazil. If it raises them, ethanol becomes more competitive at the pump, which pulls more cane away from sugar production and tightens supply. The market has been watching for that signal for weeks. The current consensus is that Petrobras will not move until the Middle East conflict is resolved, and even then, any adjustment is expected to be limited.

The link exists, but it is not automatic. Sugar supply and demand fundamentals are currently comfortable, and a large sugarcane harvest is keeping a lid on prices despite the theoretical case for diverting more cane toward ethanol. The incentive is there. The market just has not moved decisively to act on it yet.

Brazilian cane mills decide how much sugarcane to direct toward sugar versus ethanol. When sugar prices are low and energy prices are high, the economics shift toward ethanol. That flexibility makes Brazil’s sugar and energy markets more tightly connected than almost anywhere else, a price move in one can ripple directly into the other.

No. The case studies that illustrate this transition – Atlantic Grupa, Beumer Group – point to market intelligence as the turning point, not a specific technology implementation. AI can support and accelerate good procurement practice, but the intelligence infrastructure needs to come first. Technology amplifies what you already have. If what you have is incomplete or reactive, the technology reflects that.

Before the numbers move. The functions that have the strongest relationships with finance are the ones that show up with an informed view of where costs could be heading, not the ones that explain why the budget missed after the fact. The first conversation about a cost move should be about how to respond, not about who is accountable.

It removes the information asymmetry. Suppliers arrive at negotiations with their own view of market conditions. Procurement teams without independent data are effectively negotiating against that framing. Teams with credible, forward-looking commodity forecasts can validate or challenge cost pressure claims with their own evidence rather than accepting the supplier’s narrative.

Yes. Notifications are delivered as soon as trigger conditions are met.

Yes. Alerts can be set by percentage change or absolute value movement. 

Via email and in-platform notifications. 

Commodity price movement alerts, forecast changes, content updates and watchlist-based notifications.

Expana’s forecasting models flagged rising crude oil price risk in January 2026, ahead of the current escalation. Procurement teams with access to forward price forecasts and commodity price benchmarks are better placed to time purchasing decisions, secure hedging strategies, and build stronger supplier negotiation positions. 

By definition, yes – that’s what makes them different from black swan events. Grey rhinos are high-impact risks that are well-documented and visible in advance; the problem is not a lack of information, it’s a lack of attention. Rising unemployment and an inverted yield curve are textbook examples: the data is public, the historical pattern is clear, and yet both tend to get dismissed or forgotten as time passes without an immediate crisis. The risk doesn’t go away just because people stop talking about it.

Crude oil and natural gas face the most immediate impact. Secondary effects are already showing up in plastics, aluminium, fertilizers, and transportation costs. Inflation in these input categories will work through to consumer goods over the coming weeks and months. 

Soft commodities – those dependent on agricultural production – tend to carry the highest price risk, given their exposure to weather, disease, and geopolitical disruption. Cocoa, coffee, wheat, palm oil, and sugar have all seen significant volatility in recent years. Energy-linked costs such as packaging materials and logistics are increasingly relevant for food manufacturers too, because oil price movements feed through into petrochemical-derived inputs. 

It gives you a forward view of where prices are likely to move, which means better-timed purchasing decisions, more informed contract negotiations, and earlier sight of potential cost pressures. Rather than responding to price movements after the fact, teams with reliable forecasting can act ahead of the market – buying forward before a price rise, deferring purchases before a projected fall, or locking in fixed-price agreements at the right point in the cycle. 

Combining operational strategies – fixed-price supplier agreements, strategic purchasing, and supply base diversification – with commodity price forecasting to inform the timing and scale of each decision. The common thread is acting before volatility hits, not after. 

The rally is being driven by crude oil strength and expectations of stronger biodiesel demand, which pulls soybean oil higher in futures. However, the physical market has been comparatively quiet, with end users hesitant to buy at elevated prices and some cargoes being redirected or discounted due to regional uncertainty. Large soybean supplies in Brazil, the US, and Argentina are also tempering tightness concerns.