China, the world’s largest producer of apple juice, could be facing a significant drop in apple production this year, according to market sources, as the country’s key producing regions struggle with adverse weather conditions.

Since March, frosts have struck orchards in key regions in the north, such as Shandong and Hebei, negatively affecting yield volume and fruit quality, with cosmetic damage to the fruit decreasing its commercial viability. Additionally, reports indicate that a severe drought is affecting the major apple-producing province of Shaanxi.

While this year’s harvest is still a couple of months away (typically occurring in September), market sources have reported ‘clear indications’ of reduced yields this year.

At the start of spring, market conditions for Chinese apple juice were described as stable, as processors had largely stopped running fruit and apple concentrate demand was limited. Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) for Apple juice concentrate (CN) fob China stood at $1,550/mt in May, down slightly month-on-month due to limited trading activity. Prior to the recent weather events, market sources had reported to Expana expectations of an adequate crop this year. It remains to be seen how a significant reduction in Chinese apple yields, if realized, will affect market sentiment and if tighter supply will lead to upward pressure on apple juice prices.

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