HPAI Outbreak summary
On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, approximately 2.92 million broilers have been lost to HPAI in 2025. This is up 274% year-over-year (YoY) and is up 24% from 2022 when the outbreak began. Of the broilers impacted this year, 4% have been commercial broiler breeders, and 96% have been commercial production birds. There have been nine unique states impacted. This is up 200% YoY and is 10% below that of 2022. These states are Arkansas, California, Delaware, Georgia, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. There have been 16 unique counties impacted YTD, up 300% YoY and up 60% from 2022.
Current Events
Year-to-date HPAI cases in broilers remain at an all-time high, but there has not been a detection in broilers or broiler breeders since mid-March. Furthermore, peak migration has come to an end or is nearing the finish for most of the major chicken producing regions. This results in hesitant anticipation on the part of many industry participants that disease may not play as much of a role in the supply situation in the coming months.
The industry is currently in a position of relatively tight supplies, while demand is extremely robust. The limited inventories have been reported to be the product of a combination of factors including HPAI, avian metapneumovirus, as well as weather and natural events. This leaves many buyers searching for production which is influencing relatively high prices for lines such as boneless breast meat, thigh meat, tenders, and leg meat. With chicken continuing to be an affordable option compared to beef, many participants believe there’s a need for a change in the supply chain to balance out demand. Whether a lower incidence of disease or seasonal factors as a potential influence in downward pressure with grilling season upon us are enough to make that happen, remains to be seen.
Image source: Adobe
Written by Elsi Rodewald
