EU farmers and agri-co-op union Copa-Cogeca has warned of a “dramatic and unprecedented collapse in EU nitrogen fertilizer imports” since the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) took effect at the beginning of 2026.
The organization says that January 2026 imports registered by the European Commission amounted to a mere 16% of the prior year’s figures, or 179,877 tonnes compared to January 2025’s 1.18 million tonnes.
Copa-Cogeca says that the EU traditionally imports over 30% of its nitrogen fertilizer.
“A reduction of this magnitude cannot be absorbed without consequences. It poses a direct threat to the stability of agricultural production across the EU, destabilising markets by triggering anticipatory behaviours, as seen in December 2025 just prior to the mechanism’s implementation,” it claims.
Spike in late 2025 imports before implementation
December 2025 imports, meanwhile, amounted to some 2.53 million tonnes, around 107% higher than the five-year average of 1.22 million tonnes. In other words, there was clearly significant stocking-up taking place in December, before the new carbon tax became effective.
Fertilizers Europe, an industry group representing the continents’ own manufacturers, notes that this figure represents nearly 30% of the EU’s annual consumption of nitrogen fertilizers (8.3 million tonnes as of 2023). “In fact, the December imports were the highest ever recorded,” it claims.
The experience of at least one major fertilizer supplier seems to validate that the European market was clearly bringing sales ahead in the final months of 2025. In a conference call discussing Q4 results with analysts and investors last week, Yara International’s head of market intelligence Dag Mo commented on the strength of European demand in the quarter, stating “we think a large part of that was due to positioning ahead of CBAM; already from November… there was quite strong interest in buying.”
Heightened risk of margin squeeze
The dynamic has predictably led to higher prices. Copa-Cogeca claims domestic fertilizer prices in January 2026 were 25% above the 2024 average. Meanwhile, according to Expana’s Vincent Braak, crop analyst, the ammonium‑nitrate price in France this winter is roughly double what it was five years earlier, although it remains well below the 2022 peak driven by the surge in European gas prices after the start of the war in Ukraine.
“Fertilizers are the heaviest variable cost for arable crop cultivation in Europe, so sustained upward pressure on those prices directly erodes farm margins,” observes Braak. “Although the European Commission has signaled a possible retroactive suspension of the application of the CBAM for fertilizers (a measure not implemented as of today), the increase in tariffs on Russian fertilizers imports in July 2026 and ongoing supply‑chain difficulties are still likely to keep production costs in Europe structurally higher.”
A contentious carbon tax on imported goods
Given that the EU already has stringent emissions requirements in place for goods produced domestically, the CBAM is an attempt to level the playing field with foreign producers by imposing an “adjustment mechanism” charge on imports of certain carbon-intensive goods.
As Expana has previously reported, both member states and civil society have warned that the CBAM’s implementation was likely to create distortions in a tight fertilizer market in early 2026.
Written by Shannon Behary
