Global Coffee Supply to Increase; Expana Qualifies USDA Forecast

On June 25, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) released the bi-annual Coffee: World Markets and Trade report. From a global perspective, the 2024/25 coffee harvest has been revised down to 174.4 million bags (60kg each). As the new 2025/26 harvest begins in main producing countries like Brazil, the forecast has gone up 4.3 million bags to a record 178.7 million bags, according to USDA FAS. 

Interestingly, the USDA headline is not about main producers like Brazil and Vietnam. Instead, Uganda gets the shoutout on page one; the country’s production was forecasted to reach a record high 5.8 million bags. This goes to show how other nations are contributing to the predicted global inventory of 22.8 million bags in 2025/26, according to USDA forecasters. Global production has been down since the previous record high was reached in 2020/21—followed by a dramatic decline in production for 2021/22. Having said that, global consumption is expected to increase from 166.5 million bags in 2024/25 to 169.3 million bags consumed in 2025/26, according to USDA data. 

Both the USDA forecasters and the Tropical Research Services (TRS) team at Expana are observing an increase in global coffee production. However, there are differences in the predictions from the two teams—a contrast that is exemplified by their estimations of the Brazilian coffee crop. 

Brazil 

In top exporter Brazil, 65 million bags were forecasted in the 2025/26 harvest—up from 64.7 million bags in 2024/25, according to the USDA report which cites a record robusta crop and declining arabica production. Arabica producing areas experienced tougher weather conditions. Plus, coffee bean exports are forecasted to be lower as elevated prices dissuade importing countries from rebuilding stocks. 

Otherwise, one Brazilian institute predicts 2025 coffee production at 55.3 million bags, according to IBGE. While another domestic agency expects Brazilian coffee production to grow to 55.7 million bags, according to Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) (customer access only) which recorded 2024/25 production at 54.2 million bags. 

“The USDA forecast is closer to reality than that of CONAB,” explained Steve Wateridge, VP of Analysis on the TRS team at Expana. “However, USDA officials are in denial about how much coffee is coming out of Brazil. But they won’t review their most recent numbers for another six months. In the most recent USDA report on coffee, they’ve reduced the carry in stock—their levels are too low. Expana’s team will verify those stocks each season. And sooner or later, the USDA officials will raise their crop numbers as their crop estimates are too low (particularly for the conillon [or robusta] crop).”   

Currently, it is the winter season in Brazil. Frost in coffee areas occurs when temperatures reach levels below -0.5C for at least 30 minutes. For the most part, frost concerns have receded recently as lows are expected to be above 8C in the next 15 days around major arabica-producing regions in Brazil, according to the TRS team at Expana who have a slightly different forecast for production in the 2025/26 season. Having said that, there was a recent, minor frost event restricted to the Brazil’s southern Paraná region (affecting Brazilian sugar production) which could also possibly ding Brazilian coffee production by 100,000 bags in the 2026/27 season, according to Juliano Mota, an Expana agronomist.

Previously, the Brazilian coffee crop and the surrounding weather conditions were under scrutiny as production was unclear, and prices were on the rise, reported Expana (customer access only). 

Vietnam 

Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production has rebounded and is forecasted at 31 million bags. In 2024/25, Vietnam’s forecast was reduced by 1.1 million bags to 29.0 million as drought conditions limited output. The forecast for the last two harvests in Vietnam shows just one million bags of arabica, according to the USDA. 

Colombia 

In 2025/26, Colombia’s coffee “output is expected to retreat by 700,000 bags to 12.5 million as excessive rains and cloud cover disrupted the flowering period to lowered yields. While these conditions were favorable for coffee leaf rust to proliferate, overall detection rates have been relatively low due to the high presence of disease-resistant varieties. Bean exports, mostly to the United States and European Union, are forecast down 500,000 bags to 10.7 million on reduced output.” Colombia’s 2024/25 USDA forecast stands at 13.2 million bags. 

During the ongoing US trade team’s tariff tenure, Colombia has been a favorite destination for US coffee importers who needed beans on a quick turnaround, according to Expana’s sources (customer access only). 

Prices 

With global supply looking up, coffee prices have fallen from record highs. On July 14, nearby arabica contracts on NY ICE closed at 305.70 USc/LB (or $6,739 /MT), according to the Expana platform that showed a price bounce due to US-Brazil tariff uncertainty. 

On July 7, this contract’s most recent bottom was reached at 280 USc/LB. Market watchers haven’t seen price levels below 300 USc/LB since November 2024. 

Prices are also falling for robusta—even as main producers like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Brazil all face tariff hikes, reported Expana. On July 14, nearby robusta contracts closed at $3,821/MT, according to Expana. Just a week prior, the contract hit the lowest price since Spring 2024. 

Image source: Shutterstock