Middle East Conflict: Salmon Exports to Middle East, North Africa Face Potential Halt

Salmon exports to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region grew steadily through 2025, with Norway dominating the market and Chile holding a smaller but notable presence. This expansion may now face a severe disruption following the outbreak of conflict in the region, which could significantly impair maritime trade and reshape global seafood supply chains. 

Norway’s salmon exports to MENA climbed steadily from roughly 43,000 metric tons (MT) in 2023 to 50,000 MT in 2024, reaching about 58,000 MT in 2025. This consistent rise reflects the Nordic nation’s position as the world’s leading salmon producer and its strong foothold in the region prior to the geopolitical escalation. 

Chile’s market share was smaller but volatile, rising from 10,000 metric tons in 2023 to 14,000 MT in 2024 before falling to around 9,000 MT in 2025. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom remained a small contributor across all three years. 

Conflict Threatens Emerging Market 

Before the escalation, the MENA region had emerged as a potentially key destination for premium salmon, with combined exports nearly doubling from 2023 to 2025. Rising incomes and growing demand for high-quality seafood were fueling sustained growth for major suppliers. 

That trajectory may now be interrupted by Israeli and USA strikes on Iran, followed by Iranian retaliation, which has forced shutdowns of critical oil, gas, and port infrastructure across the Middle East. Shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital trade corridors, appear to face severe bottlenecks that could affect the movement of perishable goods. 

Shipping Bottleneck Could Halt Exports 

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of global oil demand daily, along with tankers transporting diesel, gasoline, liquefied gas, and high-value perishables such as fresh and frozen salmon destined for MENA markets. Since the outbreak of hostilities, at least three tankers have reportedly been damaged, one seafarer killed, and about 150 vessels stranded in the area. 

These disruptions could make seafood shipments to MENA prohibitively expensive and logistically challenging to coordinate. Exporters may face the difficult decision of suspending deliveries or redirecting shipments to alternative markets, potentially halting salmon shipments to the region for an extended period. 

While oil and gas markets have captured immediate attention, Brent crude spiked as much as 13% to $82.37 a barrel, European natural gas rose over 25%, the salmon trade illustrates potential wider economic fallout. Perishable goods depend on predictable shipping routes, and instability in the Middle East could disrupt both energy and food supply chains alike. 

“The latest move reflects uncertainty around the scale and duration of the current conflict and recognises that Iran’s political future may have major implications for the stability of the Middle East,” said James Hosie of Shore Capital, a sentiment that may prove equally relevant to seafood exporters assessing regional risks. 

Outlook Suggests Prolonged Disruption 

Citi analysts suggest the conflict could persist for weeks, with resolution potentially hinging on leadership shifts in Iran or deliberate de-escalation efforts by the USA. Even if hostilities were to end within that timeframe, shipping congestion, damaged infrastructure, and elevated freight costs could likely keep MENA salmon imports suppressed for an extended period. 

The growth trajectory seen from 2023 to 2025 may now face a significant slowdown. This situation serves as a reminder of how geopolitical instability can reshape trade flows, particularly in regions where markets depend on delicate supply chain logistics.