Middle East Conflict: Uncertainty Over Growing US Seafood Imports

Middle East and North African seafood exports to the United States totaled approximately 95.3 million lbs. in 2025, advancing from 91.3 million lbs in 2024. Normally, this steady growth would indicate healthy demand and resilient supply chains. Now, however, the numbers are being scrutinized in a new light as an intensifying regional conflict threatens to derail trade flows and disrupt maritime logistics. 

Israeli and US strikes on Iran, followed by Iranian retaliation, have forced shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the Middle East and disrupted shipping in the vital Strait of Hormuz. On a typical day, ships carrying oil equal to about one-fifth of global demand pass through the Strait, along with tankers hauling refined fuels. It is also a critical path for about 20% of global liquefied gas. 

The conflict has left several tankers damaged, a seafarer killed and over 150 ships stranded. Saudi Arabia shut its largest domestic oil refinery after a drone strike. Brent crude futures briefly surged 13% to $82.37 a barrel on Monday, underscoring the mounting risk premium embedded in commodity markets. 

Seafood shipments from Middle Eastern and North African exporters rely heavily on stable maritime routes. Any prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could force costly rerouting, delay deliveries and increase insurance and freight charges, potentially altering the flow of goods to US buyers. Given the USA’s reliance on imports for many seafood categories, supply constraints could quickly translate to tighter markets and higher prices. 

Leading export categories 

Crustaceans NSPF prepared and preserved products led the export mix at 18.3 million lbs. in 2025. Canned sardines in oil with skinned and boned varieties followed at 9 million lbs., while fresh seabass (Dicentrarchus spp.) remained a top performer at 13.3 million lbs., just below its 2024 output. 

Several categories saw sharp gains prior to the current crisis: 

– Shrimp peeled frozen rose to 4.6 million lbs. in 2025 from 1.7 million lbs. a year earlier. 

– Crab NSPF frozen climbed to 3.8 million lbs. from 2.3 million lbs. 

– Octopus frozen surged to 3.6 million lbs. from minimal prior volumes. 

– Marine fish NSPF fillet frozen increased to 3.6 million lbs from 2.6 million lbs.

Octopus 

Expana’s Josh Bickert noted that Moroccan octopus could be among the key products affected by turmoil in the Middle East. Moroccan octopus appears to be gaining significant prominence in US imports as buyers seek alternatives to constrained and elevated-priced Spanish product.

Import data shows a dramatic surge in Moroccan octopus volumes, climbing from 61,003 lbs. in 2024 to 3.6 million lbs. in 2025, representing a nearly 60-fold increase year-over-year. However, the intensifying regional conflict and potential disruptions to Middle Eastern shipping routes add another layer of uncertainty to an already challenging octopus marketplace. With maritime logistics facing potential delays and increased costs due to ongoing tensions, this emerging supply source could face its own constraints as it becomes a more integral component of US sourcing strategies. The geopolitical instability threatens to create additional ripple effects across the octopus market at a time when buyers are already navigating tight Spanish availability and elevated pricing pressures.

Sea bass

European sea bass, primarily farmed in Greece and Turkey, relies heavily on export channels into the Gulf — particularly the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Liz Cuozzo, seafood market reporter for Expana, noted that the escalating conflict would create headwinds for sea bass as well. 

Even if product continues moving, longer transit times and higher risk premiums can compress exporter margins or translate into firmer CIF pricing. 

At the same time, hospitality demand is a key driver for sea bass in the Gulf. If regional instability dampens tourism, hotel occupancy, or high-end foodservice traffic, demand for premium whole fish could soften temporarily. Conversely, if trade routes tighten or regional sourcing shifts, buyers may front-load orders, creating short-term volatility in pricing and availability. 

Co-authored by:

Liz Cuozzo
Expana
1-732-240-5330 ext. 272
[email protected]

Joshua Bickert
Expana
1-732-240-5330 ext 213
[email protected]

Image source: Getty