Market players have noted a shift in Ukraine’s soybean supply dynamics during the 2025/2026 marketing year, as export volumes continue to decline while domestic processing demand strengthens. Analysts estimate that total soybean exports could fall by up to 37% year-on-year this season.
Sources attributed the decline primarily to rising domestic demand from the oilseed processing sector, which has supported local prices despite weaker export flows. Market participants also pointed to stiff competition from South American and US origin soybeans, alongside the introduction of a 10% export duty by the government in early September 2025, as additional constraints on export competitiveness.
Market players told Expana that Ukraine’s soybean exports fell sharply during September to November 2025, declining by almost threefold compared with the 1.7 million mt shipped during the same period last season. The steepest reductions were recorded in shipments to the EU, Pakistan, and Egypt. While exports to Turkey have remained relatively stable, sources said overall volumes are still lower and could decline further as the season progresses.
Egypt has historically been a key destination for Ukrainian soybeans, but sources noted that US origin supplies are increasingly displacing Ukrainian volumes. The US share of Egypt’s soybean imports rose from 1.4 million mt to 2 million mt in 2025, accounting for around 40% of Egypt’s expected 2025/2026 import requirements. Market participants said this share could rise to as much as 80% if current trade patterns persist.
In addition to competition from the US and export duties, uncertainty surrounding the EU Deforestation Regulation and a smaller overall crop has also contributed to downward revisions in Ukraine’s export outlook. Market analysts forecast Ukraine’s soybean production at 5.6 million mt, compared with a record 7.1 million mt last season. Sources said unfavourable weather conditions and delayed sowing weighed on yields, further reducing export availability. Market players also highlighted ongoing disruptions linked to the Ukraine-Russia conflict as an additional supply-side constraint.
Sources said these factors have driven a notable increase in domestic oilseed processing as opposed to exporting. Market players indicated that soybean processing volumes could rise to 3 million mt in the 2025/2026 season, up by around 200,000 mt from last year and, for the first time, exceeding export volumes. For the same season, the USDA forecasts Ukraine’s soybean exports at 2.7 million mt. Traders said domestic crushers currently offer a more attractive outlet for farmers, citing faster payment terms compared with export channels.
Market players also flagged ongoing negotiations between the EU and the South American trade bloc Mercosur as a potential longer-term risk for Ukraine’s soybean exports. While the agreement does not currently alter EU market access for Ukrainian soybeans, sources said it adds a layer of uncertainty for exporters.
Looking ahead, market participants said the ongoing shift toward domestic processing could support Ukraine’s soymeal and soybean oil exports in 2026, depending on relative price competitiveness and foreign demand. Current forecasts place Ukraine’s soybean oil exports in the 2025/2026 season slightly above last year, at 530,000 mt compared with 523,000 mt in 2024/2025.
Image source: Getty
Written by Ben Barritt
