Coffee prices & market intelligence
Expana bolsters transparency in the coffee market by offering both proprietary origin differentials as well as outright cash prices through its Expana Benchmark Prices, showing the most complete record of costs available within the physical trade. In addition, Expana also assesses benchmark prices for organic and Fairtrade certified coffee from a number of origins.
Expana —the IOSCO assured global leader in coffee commodity prices and global market intelligence
Coffee prices can vary wildly from one region to the next, and even within individual farms. The coffee type, bean size, defects, moisture content, harvesting and preparation methods and sustainability certification schemes all have a material impact on coffee prices. Our Expana Benchmark Prices for individual origins and varieties are assessed to shine transparency on these factors and how they influence the price paid by industry participants throughout the supply chain.
Our coffee coverage includes:
- 41 industry-leading coffee price series, including IOSCO assured Arabica prices
- 34 forecasted coffee price series
- expert analysis on market defining items in the coffee industry
- reports, webinars and regular market insights, plus real-time news
- historical pricing, trends, charting tools, and cost modeling
Tropical Research Services, a subsidiary of Expana, offer top-tier coffee production forecasts and crop tours across major producing nations
Trusted by industry leaders for reliable market insight
Our coffee forecasting
Expana’s coffee price forecasts are grounded in a comprehensive analysis of commodities’ market dynamics. Our robust methodology integrates macro-economic, fundamental, and technical analyses, providing solid recommendations and driving effective decision-making in the coffee commodity market.
- The macro-economic analysis explores global manufacturing sector developments, and their impact on commodity prices, presenting key indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation, and interest rates for major regions.
- The fundamental analysis offers an overview of the current coffee supply-and-demand balance
- weather plays a critical role in coffee production. Hot and dry weather, as well as disease and frost during winter months, have threatened areas of production across the coffee industry over the past several years. Changes in growing areas, government regulations such as the EUDR, and input costs such as fertilizers and energy have also driven coffee prices to all-time highs in late 2024.
- world demand continues to grow as populations expand and developing countries increase consumer spending on coffee.
- Finally, the technical analysis employs indicators such as moving averages, MACD and RSI to anticipate changes in price movements
The breadth and depth of Expana’s analysis ensure that our coffee forecasts are accurate, reliable, and actionable. This comprehensive approach equips businesses with the knowledge and foresight needed to navigate the market confidently, seize opportunities, and mitigate risks.
Trusted data and insights, backed by experts
At Expana, you can rest assured that the world’s foremost market analysts have rigorously verified the data to ensure accuracy and integrity.
Our methodology
Expana is an IOSCO-assured Price Reporting Agency, ensuring the data you benchmark against is the best of its kind.
Use cases
Efficiency
Save time and improve productivity with our actionable insights.
Cost control
Navigate market challenges and maximize long-term success.
Profitability
Utilize our data, market fundamentals, and forecasting expertise to gain a financial edge.
Risk mitigation
Manage risks proactively and minimize your exposure to price fluctuations.
Essential intelligence for industry professionals
Expana delivers essential intelligence to industry professionals across coffee supply chains, ensuring business leaders stay informed about the latest prices and industry trends, enabling them to effectively navigate disruptions, manage prices, and deliver value to their customers.
Coffee Market FAQs
For most coffee, the price paid for green (unroasted) coffee is made up of two parts – the futures price for the variety of arabica or robusta, and a differential or basis that accounts for the exact origin and grade. There are other factors like sustainability certifications that add additional cost, as well as storage delivery charges based on location. However, some speciality coffees will often be priced on an outright basis, often agreed directly between the buyer and the producer, based on a direct sourcing model.
Coffee will generally be manufactured into either roast in bag, roast and ground, or a soluble coffee like instant. Increasingly there is a trend towards coffee extracts, but most coffee will be manufactured to be consumed as a drink in its final state.
Key factors include:
- Weather conditions (such as drought or frost in Brazil)
- Crop diseases (like coffee leaf rust)
- Changes in government regulations such as the EUDR
- Supply chain disruptions
- Changes input costs such as fertilizers and energy
- Currency fluctuations (especially the Brazilian Real and US Dollar)
- Consumption trends and global demand
The primary coffee futures exchanges are:
- ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) in New York: Arabica
- ICE Europe in London: Robusta