Key Takeaways
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US production down 16.9% YOY, reaching a forecast 310,500 tons, the smallest crop since 2022.
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Washington production down 23% YOY, while California’s 24% recovery offers only partial relief.
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Tighter supply outlook raises concerns for processing availability, with pricing influenced by inventories and fresh-market demand.
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Source: USDA
The US dark sweet cherry market is navigating a smaller crop in 2026, as unfavorable weather conditions across key growing regions limit production and complicate fruit quality. Following a challenging 2025 season, national sweet cherry production is projected to decline further, with reduced output in Washington, Oregon and Michigan offset only partially by a recovery in California.
US sweet cherry production is forecast at 310,500 tons in 2026, down 16.9% year over year from 373,850 tons in 2025, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) June 2026 Crop Production report. The decline reflects lower output across major growing regions, particularly Washington and Oregon, while California’s recovery provides only partial relief.
Washington production is forecast at 200,000 tons, down from 261,000 tons in 2025, while California production is expected to increase to 63,000 tons from 50,700 tons, according to USDA NASS. The USDA Economic Research Service also reported in September 2026 that California sweet cherry production was projected to rise 24% year over year, providing some regional supply relief. Oregon production is also forecast to decline, from 49,700 tons to 38,000 tons.
The smaller national crop creates a tighter supply story for the remainder of the 2026 marketing season. Although lower production may contribute to upward pricing pressure, the extent of any price movement will depend on demand, existing supplies and supplier-specific market conditions.
Written by Holly Bianchi
