Global feed additives markets are entering a period of rising capacity expansion, trade disruption and supply concentration, according to Expana market reporters speaking at Agri-Food Europe.
Lydia Ma, Market Reporter for Feed Additives China at Expana, said global compound feed production stands at around 1 billion tonnes annually. Feed additives account for approximately 3.5% of volume but 10% of value within a commercial feed industry worth roughly $400 billion. In methionine, Ma said demand is growing at around 3% annually, with global demand at 1.9 million tonnes in 2025. However, global capacity stands at 2.5 million tonnes, with additional announced expansions totaling 1.45 million tonnes.
The state of market supply
“The direction is clear: competition among producers will intensify,” she said, noting that production delays can create short-term trading windows but do not alter structural oversupply risk. In lysine, 76% of global production is concentrated in East Asia. Five Chinese producers are expected to expand capacity by more than 1 million tonnes over the next year.
“The market is oversupplied,” Ma said, adding that EU anti-dumping duties reshaped trade flows, with China reducing shipments to the EU and non-Chinese producers filling supply gaps.
Recent price increases following announcements from producer CJ were described as tactical rather than structural. In tryptophan, Ma noted that CJ controls approximately 39% of global supply, with limited diversification among producers. New capacity announcements total around 45,000 tonnes against global demand of roughly 100,000 tonnes. Valine production is even more concentrated, with China accounting for 81% of global capacity. Planned new capacity of 160,000 tonnes approaches current global demand of 180,000 tonnes.
Karolina Zagrodna, Market Reporter for Feed Additives Europe at Expana, highlighted volatility in vitamin markets following supply disruptions. In 2017, an explosion and fire at the BASF Ludwigshafen site in Germany led to force majeure declarations on vitamin A and vitamin E, driving prices to multi-year highs before stabilizing as supply normalized.
“Prices reached a four-year high after the force majeure,” she said, noting that oversupply and high inventories later weighed on markets.
More recently, vitamin E prices rebounded in late 2025 after historical lows, though new capacity planned for 2026 is expected to lower global operating rates over the next two years. In phosphates, rising sulfur input costs supported higher prices. Russia and the Middle East remain key exporters, though shifts in Russian trade flows have increased pressure on Middle Eastern supply.
Speakers agreed that concentration in production, expanding capacity and shifting trade policy are increasing structural volatility across additives markets. While demand growth remains steady, supply expansion and geopolitical disruption are likely to intensify competition and margin pressure in the coming years.
Written by Fei Thompson
