EU Wheat and Barley Head for Decent but Smaller Harvests After a Record-high 2025

EU27 wheat and barley production are both heading below last year’s levels in 2026. That’s the picture from this week’s edition of Expana’s Europe & Black Sea Crop Report, published every Thursday for licensed subscribers. Sunflower and rapeseed tell a different story, with record rapeseed acreage and a strong sunflower rebound providing some offset to the cereal losses.

EU27 KEY PRODUCTION FORECASTS: 26/27 vs 25/26

Source: Expana

EU Wheat: A Deep Year-on-Year Shortfall of the Harvest but with an Increase Potential

EU27 soft wheat is forecast at 128.6 million metric tons (M MT) for 26/27, down 8.5 M MT on the year. Yields are doing most of the decrease. Planted area is broadly stable, but expected tonnes per hectare are expected to drop across most of the bloc after an exceptional level last year. Spain has the sharpest drop, with production down around 2 M MT as yield expectations across Castilla y León and Castilla-La Mancha pull back hard.

This week’s revision was small (+0.07 M MT), with minor area adjustments in France, and Slovakia, plus a yield tweak for the Netherlands. The big picture has not changed since early in the season. Despite a smaller EU soft wheat crop expected in 2026, it is still forecast 1% above the 5-year average. In top of that, crops were in good as of early April, advocating for some yield potential increases.

EU Barley: Down 4.7 M MT on the Year

Total EU27 barley is forecast at 52.2 M MT, a decline of 4.7 M MT compared to 25/26. Both area and yields are estimated lower year-on-year, which makes this a more structural contraction than wheat while as for wheat, yields were exceptional in 2025. Spain carries the largest shortfall, with barley production down roughly 2.4 M MT on last year. France and Germany are the next biggest contributors to the decline.

The week’s EU27 barley number barely moved (+0.03M MT), with minor changes across several countries. Growing conditions of winter barley have been fair so far while spring barley sowings were still in progress in Northern Europe as of April 1^st.  

EU Rapeseed and Sunflower: The Counterweights

EU27 rapeseed acreage hit a record high in 26/27, keeping output broadly stable year-on-year at 20.8 M MT, around 11% above the five-year average. This week’s revision was a modest -0.04 M MT, mostly due to lower area in France after poor feedback regarding rapeseed growing conditions.

Sunflower is forecast at 10.0 M MT, up 1.7 M MT on last year, with upward area revisions in France, Romania and Bulgaria. Croatian farmers are switching from soybean to sunflower. In Spain, planting across the remaining regions is expected in April. Andalusia is worth watching: delayed by February rains, late-planted crops there face water stress risk at key yield-formation stages. Finally, much better yields are expected in Romania and Bulgaria which faced warm and dry conditions last year.

Weather: Cold Snap and a Rainfall Deficit to Watch

A cold weather front moved across western Europe in late March, with temperatures dropping to -5°C in parts of eastern France and southern Germany. For winter cereals, the main effect is slower crop development rather than outright damage. Rapeseed is more exposed. Early flowering has been reported in France and flower abortions are possible in the coldest areas, though secondary stems may compensate. It needs watching.

Further east, late March rainfall was returning to Poland and central and southeastern Europe, which bodes well for both winter crops and the start of spring sowings. The Baltic States are the outlier: a rainfall deficit has been building since early winter, and crops will soon need water as seasonal demand picks up.

Black Sea: Russia and Ukraine Moving in Opposite Direction

Russia’s wheat forecast is left unchanged this week to 87.2 M MT, fThe country’s 26/27 wheat harvest is still projected 5.0 M MT below last year’s level, with structurally lower acreage and yields both weighing, especially regarding spring wheat for which a trend yield is expected at this stage while sowings have not yet started. Russian sunflower forecast looks strong, with output forecast at 20.5 M MT and a potential new record in sight thanks to a record-high area.

Ukraine’s wheat forecasts is unchanged this week,at 23.1 M MT and up 0.9 M MT year-on-year, with better area and yields than last season. Sunflower at 14.4 M MT is up 3.2 M MT, a meaningful rebound after two poor campaigns. Temperatures across the Black Sea region were remaining above seasonal norms in late March, early April, with Russia’s North and South Caucasus districts benefiting from timely rainfall. Spring sowings are on track.

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