Overview
In this week’s Coffee Market News, global coffee production forecasts and price movements remain in focus as Brazil’s 2025/26 outlook adjusts downward due to adverse weather conditions. While high prices continue to incentivize farmers, uncertainty lingers around supply, demand, and the balance of global stocks. Meanwhile, record-level export data and evolving crop conditions in key producing countries—from Brazil and Colombia to Vietnam, Indonesia, and Ethiopia—paint a complex picture for the coffee market’s near-term trajectory.
Brazil’s 2025/26 Coffee Crop Forecast and Price Outlook
Recent surveys in Brazil’s South of Minas have led analysts to reduce the 2025/26 Brazilian coffee production forecast to 69.5 million bags, down by 2.7 million bags from earlier estimates. This revision reflects the cumulative impact of dry and hot weather extending into October. Although the setback is significant, production remains at the high end of market expectations. High coffee prices are discouraging pruning, thus boosting yields somewhat, and cherry blossoms remain only slightly lower than normal.
While some market observers predict more severe crop losses, field data does not support those extremes. Instead, analysts foresee the potential for a production surplus of +7.3 million bags in 2025/26. Such a surplus would be the first since 2020/21, possibly stabilizing prices as global stocks replenish. Arabica and robusta futures prices remain high, with arabica hitting record levels amid Brazil’s crop development concerns and robusta hovering near record highs due to tight supplies.
Brazilian Exports and Inventory Insights
Brazil’s October coffee exports reached a record 5.16 million bags, surpassing previous highs. November exports, at 4.66 million bags, may be revised upward to 4.86 million, setting another record. July–November exports rose 18% year-over-year to 22.19 million bags. Despite stellar export performance, reports of low interior stocks raise questions about forward supply. Early stock surveys indicate slightly lower coffee availability than anticipated, but the difference is minor.
A trade house recently claimed a -12 million bag drop in potential Brazil arabica output since September, attributing it to high cherry abortion and pruning. However, field analysis suggests a reduction of less than -3 million bags. Overall, Brazil’s 2025/26 production estimates remain robust compared to other forecasters, supported by assumptions of larger planted areas.
Vietnam’s Weather, Harvest, and Production Forecasts
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, weather conditions are shifting toward the dry season. Harvesting is slower than average and behind year-on-year levels. By mid-December, only about 36% of the robusta harvest was complete, translating to around 10.2 million bags so far. Although Ho Chi Minh City stocks rose sharply in November, they remain lower than historical averages.
The USDA’s latest 2024/25 Vietnam production forecast stands at 30.1 million bags, 2.1 million higher than independent analyst estimates. Market participants will closely watch how these differing estimates play out as the season advances.
Colombia’s Mixed Crop Prospects
In Colombia, a comprehensive macro survey covering key coffee-producing departments shows normal vegetation conditions but slightly above-normal defoliation due to ongoing harvesting. About 83% of the 2024/25 main crop is already harvested, with normal yields reported. However, above-normal defoliation could reduce mitaca crop potential by around 0.2 million bags. The total 2024/25 Colombian coffee output is now forecast at 13.5 million bags, down from the previous 13.7 million bag estimate.
Indonesia’s Robust Export Performance and Forecast
Indonesia’s green bean exports soared in October, with robusta and arabica shipments exceeding year-over-year averages. Cumulative robusta exports during the 2024/25 crop year (April–March) are up 17% year-over-year, while arabica exports rose 15%. Product exports and coffee imports also climbed. Although commercial data is outpacing forecasts by about 12%, analysts attribute this to timing rather than a larger crop. For now, Indonesia’s 2024/25 production forecast remains unchanged at 11.4 million bags.
Ethiopia’s Record October Exports
Ethiopia’s October exports hit a record 586,000 bags, a 71% year-over-year increase. This surge may be linked to preemptive shipments to the EU ahead of potential regulatory changes (EUDR). Observers will await additional commercial data before adjusting the 2024/25 production estimate.
Key Takeaways and Future Outlook
- Brazil: Slight downward revision in 2025/26 production due to weather, but still at the high end of expectations.
- Vietnam & Colombia: Divergent forecasts raise uncertainty about global supply.
- Indonesia & Ethiopia: Strong exports suggest robust near-term supply, though timing and policy factors complicate the picture.
In this Coffee Market News update, stakeholders should pay close attention to evolving weather patterns, harvest pace, and regulatory changes. While high coffee prices currently support production, any shocks—whether from unpredictable weather or weakened demand—could shift the global balance.
Stay tuned to Coffee Market News for ongoing coverage, global trade insights, and expert analysis of production, pricing, and market trends.
Written by Nick Wood
