China’s total beef imports in 2025 decreased 2.5% from a year ago to reach 2,802,150 metric tons (mt), according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC).
Yearly volumes fell 64,129 mt from 2024, though September bucked the trend with a record 315,886 mt of beef arrivals. Shipments from the Mercosur trade bloc including Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay showed uneven results, while Australian volumes posted the largest annual gain.
Since Q4 2025, the placement of most suppliers on China’s “Enhanced Supervision List” sharply curtailed imported beef volumes, and prolonged customs delays pushed up port and service fees, further choking logistics and slowing shipments.
China’s Beef Consumption Headwinds Drive Drawdown
Despite being crowned the world’s largest beef importer since 2019, beef consumption continued to be undermined by its ongoing cost-of-living crisis.
As the nation’s most expensive livestock meat, China’s battered economy has led consumers to reduce beef consumption, which is already traditionally less popular than pork, although demand tends to rise during the colder months.
Declining pork prices in China, the staple protein for its 1.41 billion people, further added pressure on beef consumption.
Once hailed as the food sector’s rising star, industrially processed pre-made meals known as “yuzhicai” faced mounting public backlash over freshness and food-safety concerns, further dampening beef demand in 2025, especially in everyday commodity segments.
Still, imported beef remained an important ingredient across regional cuisines, appearing in items from beef tendon balls and preserved meats in the south to dumpling fillings in northern cities.
In the month of December 2025, China’s imports totaled 208,289 mt, up 11.1% month-on-month (MOM) despite customs backlogs. However, annual volumes were down sharply by 23.5%.
2025 At A Glance
Brazil
China remained the central driver of Brazil’s beef exports in 2025, absorbing record volumes and reinforcing Brazil’s position as the country’s leading supplier. Rising domestic output underpinned export capacity, with expanding slaughter facilities and strong output momentum ensuring ample availability throughout the year.
Even as the Brazilian Real strengthened, exporters stayed competitive through productivity gains and flexible allocation across markets, responding to shifting tariff regimes and quota frameworks.
While other destinations such as the United States (US) and Mexico saw fluctuating demand and regulatory quota impacts, China continued to anchor Brazil’s export performance, particularly in the second half of the year, highlighting the market’s critical role in sustaining Brazil’s trade flows.
Argentina
Beef imports from Argentina in 2025 unfolded under a more supportive policy backdrop, as lower tariffs and wider deregulation boosted incentives for foreign sales. China took the bulk of shipments, anchoring Argentine export volumes, while stronger netbacks in the US drew higher shipments there and diverted some supply away from China.
However, structural limits on herd expansion and a constrained cattle base capped growth, leaving Argentina’s performance reliant on demand in its core markets rather than broad‑based volume gains.
Australia
Volumes from Australia saw the biggest growth by volume in 2025. The US-Sino trade tensions promoted the rapid expansion of Australian grain-fed shipments to China since April, as US tariffs and delayed import licenses’ renewals sidelined American supplies. However, its 2025 safeguard quota was exhausted by late July, limiting further growth.
While Australia enjoyed its second tariff-free year entering China, the activation of China’s Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) mechanism by late July curtailed further growth. Out-of-quota imports to China were subjected to a 12.0% Most-Favored Nation (MFN) tariff until December 31.
Wider market access since 2024 also played a supporting role.
Uruguay
China remained a key destination for Uruguayan beef in 2025, although overall shipments lost ground as a share of Uruguay’s total exports.
Volumes to China held up, but growth trailed that seen in higher‑value markets such as the US and the European Union (EU), where stronger pricing and steady demand lured away exportable supply. Even so, China provided a strong floor for Uruguayan beef, providing broad-based volume stability as Uruguay contends with limited scope to expand production.
Despite more local output channelled offshore, Uruguay leaned more heavily on imported beef, mainly from Brazil, to meet domestic needs.
New Zealand
Inbound shipments from New Zealand saw a sharp decline in 2025 as rising competition from South America and Australia eroded its competitive edge.
As China trudged through rocky financial terrain, New Zealand continued to shift its focus away from its once-largest trading partner. Yet, bouts of replenishment demand supported overall 2025 shipments, especially in the latter part of the year.
Strong pull for pasture-raised lean boneless beef, commonly used in hamburgers and sausages, led New Zealand to prioritize its export capacity to the US instead, where supply was constrained by the lowest cattle herd in more than seven decades.
High cattle retention limited herd slaughter, further weighing on New Zealand’s total export volumes to China.
The US
The US provides a clear example of how politics can tip the market overnight. The tariff blitz between the world’s major economic powers kept duties elevated through most of Q2 to Q4, while the expiry of US import permits brought shipments nearly to a standstill.
The White House announced on November 1 that China had agreed to remove all retaliatory tariffs and non-tariff barriers, yet lapsed permits and delayed renewals continued to hurt. US shipments nearly careened to a halt, capturing only a tiny sliver of the market by the end of 2025.
Beef Market Outlook 2026
Beef import volumes are penciled to remain subdued amid persistent consumption woes, slow economic recovery, and trade tensions with the US, market players said. Unsurprisingly, China’s latest safeguard policy rollout will largely determine 2026’s import dynamics, with exhausted quota volumes facing a hefty 55% tariff.
As the most expensive animal protein, market movements in pork and chicken will also influence beef demand.
On the supplier front, there is also the possibility that US beef may re-enter China if lapsed permits are renewed, potentially eroding Australia’s recently gained foothold in the grain-fed segment.
While China’s economy grew 5% in 2025, matching the government’s target, weak domestic consumption persisted. New government plans aiming to channel more funds toward boosting spending were also underway.
Authorities also announced an extension of interest subsidies for consumers, service enterprises, and businesses needing equipment upgrades through 2026 to support softening demand.
China’s beef market movements in 2025 highlighted broader risks, where rapid market fluctuations driven by import demand masked underlying operational and financial vulnerabilities.
As import volumes continue to shift amid economic uncertainty and supply chain disruptions, China’s safeguard measures underscore how quickly trade conditions can change, sending a cautionary signal to both importers and exporters in 2026.
*Please note that import figures may vary from export data published by other official sources due to differences in the methodologies used by each entity/organization for collecting and reporting data.
Co-authored by:
Augusto Eto
Image source: Getty
Written by Junie Lin
