As part of our ongoing efforts to provide data-driven insights into global coffee production, our team conducted Indonesia coffee December Crop Survey we surveyed a total of 886 randomly selected farms on the islands of Sumatra and Java, of which 726 farms were in Southern Sumatra, distributed among the provinces of Lampung, South Sumatra, Bengkulu, and Jambi. The remaining 160 farms were in East Java and Central Java provinces on the island of Java. As usual, Java was surveyed in earlier, in the second half of November, while Southern Sumatra was surveyed subsequently in December.
Wet Weather and Elevated Soil Moisture
In both Southern Sumatra and Java, field teams encountered wet weather conditions throughout December. Notably, average soil moisture was:
- Higher year-on-year
- Above normal levels
Why It Matters: Elevated soil moisture typically supports healthier coffee plants, potentially improving yields. However, excessive rainfall can also create challenges like soil erosion or increased fungus pressure. Our crop survey teams will continue monitoring soil conditions to help coffee stakeholders anticipate any shifts in productivity.
Strong Asalan Prices Boost Farm Care
Record-high Asalan prices have motivated Indonesian coffee farmers to increase overall farm care. This was evident in:
- Unusually high fertilizer application across Sumatra and Java
- Enhanced weeding, pruning, and general maintenance, exceeding normal levels
Why It Matters: Higher coffee prices often incentivize farmers to invest more in their fields. This positive correlation between robust prices and farm care can lead to improved yields, better-quality beans, and a more resilient supply chain.
Commercial Data: Exports Up, But Flow Slowing
From April to October 2024, commercial data showed that Asalan coffee arrivals were +12% above forecast. However, since October, arrivals have started to decrease.
Why It Matters: While strong prices encouraged early sales and shipments, the slowing pace may indicate a seasonal lull or reflect farmer strategies to hold back product until prices reach optimal levels. B2B buyers should track these trends to ensure efficient sourcing strategies.
Mid-Crop Harvest in Southern Sumatra
Harvesting for the 2024/25 mid-crop has begun in northern regions and is visible at 11% of the farms surveyed in Southern Sumatra. This early activity is causing a decrease in measurable 2024/25 mid-crop cherry yields. Despite this, we maintain our Indonesia 2024/25 coffee production estimate (April–March basis) at 11.4 million bags, up from 10.0 million bags in 2023/24.
Why It Matters: Mid-crop volumes often supplement main crop production, helping stabilize supply during off-peak times. Buyers should monitor mid-crop yields to anticipate how they might impact pricing or availability heading into 2025.
2025/26 Production Outlook: Sumatra vs. Java
Our latest survey reveals:
- Increased main crop yields for Sumatra since our October survey
- A slight decrease in Java yields due to regional factors
Given the current weather forecast, enhanced farm care, and predicted cherry survival rates, we have:
- Raised Indonesia’s 2025/26 coffee production estimate by +0.2 million bags to 12.7 million bags.
- Breakdown: 10.9 million bags robusta and 1.8 million bags arabica.
Why It Matters: An uptick in production forecasts signals a potential for strong supply, particularly for robusta. For coffee traders, roasters, and importers, understanding these forecast shifts helps plan future sourcing and pricing strategies.
Implications for Buyers and Wholesalers
- Secure Supply Contracts Early: With prices remaining firm and mid-crop volumes changing, having robust supply agreements in place can mitigate volatility.
- Leverage Data and Insights: Access to real-time crop surveys—like our Indonesia coffee December Crop Survey—gives buyers a competitive edge in pricing negotiations and future planning.
- Prepare for Increased Robust Harvest: The anticipated growth in robusta production by 2025/26 could impact global arabica-robusta price differentials and sourcing strategies.
- Monitor Weather and Farm Care Trends: Ongoing high farm care levels—spurred by record Asalan prices—may continue to enhance yield potential, but extreme weather remains a variable to watch.
About Our Crop Surveys
Our company specializes in crop surveys on coffee, along with comprehensive data on agriculture products, protein, and commodities. By combining on-the-ground fieldwork with advanced analytics, we help you stay ahead of market shifts. Whether you’re looking to optimize your procurement strategy or enter new sourcing regions, our real-time insights can guide your decision-making.
Interested in deeper analysis on Indonesian coffee production and global supply trends?
Contact us to learn how our data solutions and crop surveys can give you unparalleled visibility into this dynamic market.
For tailored market intelligence on coffee, robusta, arabica, and other key agriculture commodities, reach out to our team of experts today.
Written by Nick Wood
