Ivory Coast’s northern regions, where most cashew trees in the country are grown, received roughly twice their normal rainfall in December, according to the Expana Global Weather Report – December 2025 (customer access only). With flowering underway, heavy rain can destroy blossoms before they set properly and also encourage fungal diseases, both of which can reduce yields.
Ivory Coast is the world’s largest producer of raw cashew nuts and a leading exporter, accounting for around 40% of global raw cashew nut shipments in recent years. Most of its exports are unprocessed nuts, which are then processed in countries such as Vietnam before reaching consumer markets, although national processing capacity has increased significantly. Forecasts suggest processed volumes could reach 91% above the 2024 figure, owing to more factories, local processing facilities, government incentives, and tougher measures to prevent smuggling. The government has set a target to process 50% of cashew production domestically by 2030.
Figure 1. Ivory Coast’s 2025 December precipitation percentage change compared to the 30-year average. Source: Expana and the Weather Company.
Currently, there are no reports of damage in Ivory Coast, but to the east, in Ghana, market participants said heavy December rains might have damaged parts of Ghana’s crop, though confirmations are limited and caution is required, explained Jara Zicha, Market Reporter at Expana.
“Quality is lower than last year; we are not seeing any offers for premium material above 50 outturns. There was too much rain in December, our Ghanian suppliers tell us,” a Vietnamese trader told Expana. “The first crop may be damaged; the second crop might be OK, but shipments could be delayed,” an Indian trader added.
A broker also told Expana that they had “also seen some of these reports, but they are very early indicators. We should have clearer visibility by late January.”
Co-authored by: Thess Mostoles, Editor and Jara Zicha, Market Reporter.
Image source: Adobe
Written by Demelza Knight
