The European Union (EU) is heading into 2026/27 with its corn crop already expected to be the smallest in more than 30 years. Expana’s fundamentals team forecast EU production at just 46.2 million tons, down 19% year-on-year (Y-O-Y), due to a historically low acreage combined with steep weather-related yield losses across several countries. Amid falling production, the demand for imports is rallying.
However, further reductions in harvest outlook are possible if yields deteriorate beyond current expectations, more grain is diverted to silage, or if wet conditions disrupt the harvest. A harvest below 45 million tons could be reached in the EU, potentially forcing imports beyond the record levels seen in 2022/23.
Nevertheless, a smaller corn crop would also force the animal feed sector to adapt, while lower availability of silage and forage grass would put additional pressure on livestock producers. With wheat and barley supplies looking relatively more comfortable, and soymeal more competitive, their use would expand to partially meet demand.
The result would be a delicate balance: a much larger import requirement tempered by significant feed sector adjustments in response to a tighter corn market.
Could imports break the record?
Currently, third-country imports are currently expected to rise by 15.3% in 2026/27 to 22.9 million tons, on an October-September basis, amounting to the third-highest level on record.
However, if EU production falls to 45 million tons, additional imports would be required to meet corn demand. Under this scenario, imports could exceed the previous record and reach 24 million tons, an increase of roughly 21% Y-O-Y compared with 2025/26.
The previous import peak was 23.8 million tons in 2022/23, when the EU also suffered a poor corn harvest. That season, high Ukrainian availability and competitive Ukrainian corn were complemented by seaports exports and favorable Danube water levels, which facilitated transshipment into the EU.
Our forecast assumes that sufficient corn is available on the global market and that Ukraine’s exports by sea and river – currently constrained – reach normal capacity by at least November or December. Additionally, Ukrainian origin should gain in competitiveness during the campaign, as per Expana’s grain analysis team forecasts.
The feed sector will absorb part of the supply shock
Corn incorporation rates in animal rations should nevertheless be minimal, as other feed ingredients will be more consumed. Wheat and barley supplies are expected to be more abundant this season, making them more attractive relative to corn. Soymeal is also competitive against corn and could capture some additional feed demand.
At the same time, lower silage and forage grass availability creates a more complicated dynamic. Producers need to compensate for the nutritional and energy deficit normally provided by forage, potentially increasing reliance on compound feed.
This does not necessarily mean that corn consumption through compound feed will increase. Rather, the share of corn consumption going through compound feed could rise relative to on-farm use.
Corn demand in the animal sector is forecast at 50.1 million tons, down 8.3% Y-O-Y, the lowest level since 2010/11, when demand was estimated at 48.7 million tons.
Under the worst-case production scenario, corn demand in the animal sector could fall to around 48.5 million tons, or 11% below the previous campaign. Also, corn incorporation rates would decline further and be like the prior lowest level in 2010/11. At this time, wheat and barley were highly attractive, driven by abundant supply.
Under this scenario, total animal feed sector demand could decline by around 3.6%.
EU corn crop shortfall points to record imports and very low corn uses in animal feed
According to Expana’s grain analysis team, a 45-million-ton corn crop would put the EU firmly into record import territory. Imports could reach 24 million tons, surpassing the previous record of 23.8 million tons set in 2022/23. Nevertheless, Ukrainian attractiveness should be higher, and its export constraints should ease for this to happen, as the country is the EU’s major supplier.
However, animal feed demand would have to adjust to absorb part of the supply shock, tempering overall import needs. This would occur with lower corn inclusion, partially offset by greater use of wheat, barley and soymeal, amid weaker overall feed demand.
Under this scenario, animal feed sector corn demand could fall to around 48.5 million tons, down 11% Y-O-Y, while total animal feed demand could decline by around 3.6%.
The EU would therefore become substantially more dependent on the global corn market, but the ultimate scale of that dependence will be determined by both sides of the balance sheet: how much corn the EU produces, and how much corn its livestock sector is prepared — or able — to consume.
Written by Gabriel Antonio and Andrew Kanyemba
