Middle East Conflict: Escalating Tensions Pose Potential Risks to Global Poultry Markets

Market participants believe the potential impact of the Middle East conflict on the poultry market may become visible in the coming weeks.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a key trading partner for both Brazil and Ukraine in the chicken meat sector. In January 2026, the UAE was the leading destination for Brazil’s exports of processed and fresh chicken meat.

According to data released in early February by the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA), the Gulf nation imported 44,300 metric tons (MT) during the first month of the year, a 14% increase compared to January 2025.

Overall, the UAE recorded a 5.5% year over year (YOY) increase in chicken imports from Brazil in 2025. Saudi Arabia also remained among the top three destinations for Brazilian chicken exports, reporting a 7.1% YOY increase in imports from Brazil in 2025.

Ukraine’s poultry meat exports to the UAE totalled 38,000 MT in January 2026, representing a 6.1% increase compared to December 2025, according to the Ukrainian Poultry Farmers Union. On average, the UAE accounted for approximately 9% of Ukraine’s total poultry exports in 2025. Ukraine is also among the top three suppliers of chicken meat to Saudi Arabia.

If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate amid the Iran-Israel conflict, demand disruptions in the region may occur. On a global scale, Brazil and Ukraine’s chicken meat shipments originally destined for these Gulf countries may need to be redirected to other key markets. According to market sources, this could result in increased domestic supplies in both exporting countries, potentially exerting downward pressure on prices and contributing to bearish market sentiment.

The latest escalation has also heightened concerns about possible disruptions to global energy and feed grain supplies, both critical inputs in poultry production. Iran is a major crude oil producer with substantial natural gas reserves, while Israel is an important regional energy player. Moreover, the Strait of Hormuz, located near Iran and responsible for approximately 20% of global oil transit, remains a strategically vital corridor. Any threat to this passage could significantly constrain global energy supplies.

Both Iran and Israel are significant importers of grains and oilseeds. An extended conflict could weaken regional demand, potentially placing additional downward pressure on global agricultural commodity prices, according to market sources.