The escalation of the Middle East conflict, following the start of US and Israeli military action in Iran at the end of February, is creating a challenging operating environment for European apple exporters to the Gulf region. Amid logistical disruptions, rising freight costs, and longer transit times, some producers have reported that they are exploring opportunities in alternative markets.
Not only do longer transit times affect exporters’ overheads, but they also increase the risk of quality loss, according to market sources.
The possibility of reduced market access comes amid an already well-supplied European market and reports of softening demand. As of February 2026, Poland’s apple stocks stood at 836,000 metric tonnes (MT), up by 13.1% year over year (YOY) and second only to Italy, at 1.1 million MT, according to data published by the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA). Among the 15 Northern Hemisphere producers measured by WAPA, stocks were up by 12.5% YOY.
Iran itself is a major producer of apples and apple juice, and some market participants suggest that a lack of exports from Iran could create opportunities for other producers such as Poland and Turkey. However, others state that this has not yet been observed, with Turkish sources reporting that no such increase in orders has materialized.
In the Polish apple juice market, processing at the start of 2026 was reportedly significantly below normal levels, as buyers purchased smaller volumes. Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) for Apple concentrate medium acid FCA Europe, origin Poland [Expana code: FJ05], stood at €1,600/mt on February 27 (latest data), unchanged month over month and down 28.9% YOY, as market sources reported low trade levels.
Sources add that the US and Europe’s apple juice supply needs for the 2025/26 season have largely been met, and speculate that an increase in demand from the US is unlikely until early 2027. Amid the lackluster market sentiment, sources in the Turkish apple juice market suggest that holding onto stock for now may be prudent, stating that “what will happen next season is uncertain”.
Written by Craig Elliott
