Coffee. Cocoa. Shrimp. Salmon. If your job is to keep these commodities flowing into your supply chain at a predictable cost, there’s a weather system you need to be watching closely: El Niño.
NOAA has officially declared that El Niño conditions are present, and forecasters expect it to strengthen rapidly through the second half of 2026, potentially peaking as one of the strongest events since 1950. For procurement leaders in food and beverage manufacturing, food retail, and foodservice, this isn’t just a meteorological curiosity – it’s a direct signal for sourcing risk, price volatility, and supply continuity across some of the world’s most weather-sensitive commodities.
This article breaks down what El Niño 2026/27 means for your commodity portfolio, how it compares to past events, and what actions procurement teams can take now.
What Is El Niño – and Why Should Food & Beverage Businesses Care?
El Niño is a shift in ocean and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific. Trade winds weaken or reverse, warm water shifts east across the Pacific, rainfall moves toward the Eastern Pacific, and the Walker Circulation weakens. The result: shifting rainfall, temperature swings, and elevated risk for crops, logistics, and supply chains around the world.
A few important caveats worth keeping in mind before you act on any of this:
- El Niño does not affect all countries simultaneously, and its effects are not uniformly negative.
- It is not a guarantee of certain weather events – it increases the odds, but local weather, seasonal variation, and other global factors still play a role.
- Climate change can amplify El Niño’s impacts.
Past El Niño Events vs. 2026/27: How Does This One Compare?
Forecasters are increasingly confident this event could be historically significant. Here’s what the data shows:
- Forecasters expect El Niño to persist into Q1 2027, with peak intensity in Q4 2026.
- The World Meteorological Organization (2026) puts the probability at 86% that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will set a new global annual temperature record – with El Niño’s warming effect more likely to show up in 2027 than 2026, layered on top of long-term climate warming.
- As of August, the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) has reached +0.98°C, surpassing the +0.5°C threshold for a weak El Niño, and is very close to the threshold for a moderate El Niño (+1.0°C).
- Forecast centers (NOAA-NCEP, ECMWF, JMA, BoM, DWD, UK Met Office, Météo-France, CMCC) collectively project RONI reaching 3.3 2026 – which would surpass the 1982/83 event (2.52°C), historically the strongest El Niño on modern record.
- Warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have already intensified, reaching values up to 3.5°C above normal (and up to 6.0°C near the coast at shallower depths), with the warm-water pool extending toward Mexico’s coast and the southern coast of Peru.
For context on how strong previous events behaved: the 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16 events are the benchmark “very strong” El Niños of the past 45 years, and each left a measurable mark on coffee, cocoa, and shrimp-producing regions – which we break down below.
According to Expana’s analysts, the closest historical analogue to how 2026/27 is developing is the 1997/98 event, based on the similarity in how weekly sea surface temperatures are evolving. Note: the 2015/16 event was itself unusual, running for close to 18 months rather than the more typical 12-month El Niño cycle – a reminder that even “analogue years” don’t always behave the same way twice.
Commodities Impacted by El Niño 2026/27: At-a-Glance
Outlook: Moderate-to-Very-Strong El Niño conditions rising sharply in Q4 2026
El Niño trajectory: The CPC/IRI official probabilistic ENSO forecast (June 2026) shows the probability of Moderate-to-Very-Strong El Niño conditions rising sharply through the back half of the year – from a combined ~10% probability in the May-June-July window to over 90% by October-November-December and November-December-January. Forecasters expect strengthening through Q3, very strong levels (+2°C anomaly) by Q4, with some models pointing above +3°C.
Regional weather signal for H2 2026 (Aug–Oct):
- Air temperatures above normal across much of South America, with the greatest anomalies (2.0–3.0°C above normal) concentrated in Ecuador, Peru, Brazil, Venezuela and Colombia.
- Above-normal rainfall in parts of Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Chile and Brazil.
- Below-normal rainfall in Colombia and Venezuela.
Ecuador shrimp – resilient so far, but risk is building: Ecuador shrimp exports hit a record high in 2025 (1,378,136 MT, worth $8.28bn) and YTD Jan–May 2026 volume is up 15.4% year-over-year, with strong growth in the US (+33.1%) and China (+25.9%), even as Europe softened (-17.8%). But the sector faces a stacked set of 2026 challenges: diesel costs, curfews, rain/disease pressure, and China’s sulfite controls – on top of the El Niño-driven risks of decreased pond salinity, higher disease/mortality risk, drought-linked energy shortages, and flood-related logistics disruption.
Cost inputs are already moving:
- Brent crude dropped 18.0% month-over-month in June 2026 to $85/barrel but remains elevated versus last year.
- Shipping costs (40ft container, China–Rotterdam) jumped 57.4% month-over-month in June 2026 to $4,020/unit.
- Atlantic salmon feed cost indices rose sharply in July 2026 – Americas up 15.3% quarter-over-quarter (64.4% year-over-year) and Europe up 3.5% month-over-month (53.4% year-over-year) – driven by fish meal, fish oil, and rapeseed oil costs.
- Peru’s anchovy fishery (the base of fishmeal/fish oil supply) opened its First Fishing Season North-Central quota at 1,914,049 MT – the lowest in a decade and only 24.6% of the Maximum Total Permissible Catch captured before closure, versus a 3 million MT quota in 2025.
A historical pattern worth watching – but not relying on: Across past “very strong” El Niño years (1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16), coffee, cocoa, and shrimp production effects have varied widely by origin and by event.
- Ecuador cocoa fell in all three of those years (-47%, -72%, -11% year-over-year respectively), while Indonesia cocoa actually rose in two of the three.
- Vietnam coffee production surged in 1982/83 (+81%) but fell in 2015/16 (-3%).
The takeaway for procurement: past El Niño events did not move every origin the same way, and 2026/27 is already diverging from historical patterns in places (e.g., skipjack tuna landings falling instead of rising as El Niño builds).
Timing: When Will These Impacts Hit Your Supply Chain?
One of the most useful things procurement teams can take from Expana’s analysis isn’t just what El Niño affects, but when. Impact timing varies significantly by crop type, geography and category:
- Annual and row crops feel it sooner. For crops planted and harvested within a single season, 2026 itself carries meaningful risk as rainfall and temperature patterns shift through H2.
- Tree crops carry the risk into 2027. For coffee, much of the Northern Hemisphere crop is already at a stage where this year’s cherries are largely set – so the more immediate risk isn’t necessarily this year’s yield, but the impact of reduced moisture on tree health and development, which shows up in next year’s production. Expana’s analysts flagged palm oil as behaving the same way, with today’s weather conditions typically showing up in production roughly 12–14 months later.
- Global temperature effects skew toward 2027. El Niño’s warming effect on the global baseline temperature is typically most visible in the second year of the event – meaning 2027, not 2026, is the year most likely to feel the full thermal impact, layered on top of long-term climate warming.
- Logistics disruption (Panama Canal, low river levels, wildfires) tends to build later in the event. These are generally caused by more prolonged dry weather, which takes time to develop – so they’re more of a late-2026-into-2027 risk than an immediate one.
- On the Panama Canal specifically: during the 2023/24 El Niño, drought-induced low water levels forced the Canal Authority to restrict daily ship transits and cargo loads, causing long delays. Encouragingly, the lake that feeds the Canal is currently at historically high levels, making the system more resilient this time around – and the Panama Canal Authority has stated it does not plan to introduce restrictions for the remainder of 2026 (beyond one small preventive measure already taken as a precaution). If restrictions do return, they’re more likely to materialize in 2027 than this year.
- Storm-related effects are a 2026 story. Atlantic, Pacific East Coast, and Pacific West Coast hurricane season effects play out roughly July–November 2026, while any reduction in the Australian cyclone season would fall roughly November 2026–April 2027.
The practical implication: don’t treat “El Niño risk” as a single event on a single date. Map your key categories against this timeline so you know which contracts and origins need attention now versus which need a longer runway.
Key Takeaways & Actionable Insights
- This is shaping up to be a major event – plan for the back half of 2026 through Q1 2027. Forecasters expect El Niño to strengthen through Q3 and peak in Q4 2026, with effects potentially persisting into early 2027. Build your sourcing and contracting timelines around this window, not just the current quarter.
- Separate your “this year” risk from your “next year” risk. Annual and row crops carry more immediate 2026 exposure, while tree crops like coffee and palm oil are more likely to show the real impact in 2027 production, as reduced moisture affects tree health and development rather than this year’s already-set crop. Build category-specific timelines rather than a single blanket response.
- Ecuador is the epicentre of direct risk for shrimp and cocoa. If Ecuador vannamei shrimp or Ecuadorian cocoa are meaningful parts of your sourcing mix, build in contingency for disease pressure, energy/drought disruption, and flood-related logistics delays – particularly as rainfall and temperature anomalies build through H2 2026.
- Don’t assume uniform impact across origins. Coffee and cocoa data show El Niño affects Indonesia, Vietnam, Central America, Colombia, Brazil and West Africa differently – and sometimes in opposite directions. Diversified-origin sourcing strategies are more valuable than ever; a blanket “El Niño = shortage” assumption could lead to poor purchasing decisions.
- Watch input costs, not just commodity prices. Freight (China–Rotterdam container costs up 57.4% MoM in June 2026) and feed costs (Atlantic salmon feed indices up over 50% YoY) are already under pressure – factor these into landed cost models even for commodities like salmon that aren’t directly weather-exposed.
- Keep an eye on the Panama Canal, but don’t panic yet. Unlike the 2023/24 event, the lake feeding the Canal currently sits at historically high levels, and the Canal Authority isn’t planning restrictions for the rest of 2026. If disruption returns, 2027 is the more likely window – worth monitoring for any category that routes through the Canal.
- Monitor the Peruvian anchovy season. A historically low fishmeal/fish oil quota has direct knock-on effects for aquafeed costs across salmon and shrimp supply chains – this is a leading indicator worth tracking for feed-cost-sensitive categories.
- Some “wild card” categories are proving less predictable than history suggests. Skipjack tuna landings are down 31% YTD in the Eastern Pacific even though El Niño has historically boosted catches there – a reminder to track current data rather than relying solely on historical El Niño playbooks.
- Not everything is at risk. Cold-water shrimp, lobster, and Atlantic salmon are not identified as directly impacted by El Niño – treat these as more stable categories for near-term planning, while keeping an eye on their own independent supply and cost drivers.
Need to know more about El Niño? Speak to a specialist.
This commentary is prepared by Expana and its group of companies, neither of which is an investment firm. The views expressed are for information only. See our disclaimer for more information.
Image source: Getty
Written by Farah Rahman
