Fresh wholesale turkey quotations currently sit at a value of $1.77, the second-highest seasonal price on record. This is up 31.1% year-over-year (YOY) and is 10.0% above the 5-year average for this time period. Meanwhile, last week’s retail values for fresh 16-24 lbs. turkeys were only higher than those of last year at the same time, by 19.5%.

In 2024, the retail value of fresh whole turkeys was held above the wholesale value up until the week prior to Thanksgiving, as retailers discounted their production by about 27.9% compared to the wholesale market during that week. This is a very common strategy among retailers as they utilize turkey as a loss-leader during the holiday season. This year, it will be interesting to see how deeply retailers are willing to discount, given the current supply backdrop of fresh whole turkeys.

Right as the turkey processing industry started gearing up for fresh whole bird production, HPAI started sweeping through flocks. So far in the fourth quarter of this year alone, over 1.3 million commercial turkeys have been lost, 97.7% of which have been meat birds. In an already very tight production landscape, this has resulted in massive shortages throughout the industry. Buyers in all areas of the market have had supply cuts on existing commitments. Those looking for spot production find very little availability, and what is shown is generally through second-hand channels and is held for significant premiums. However, movement at these prices is very slow to occur, as many sellers fear purchasing production at a relatively expensive value and being unable to move it.

In conclusion, the extremely limited supplies and ongoing disease challenges leave participants in the turkey market to approach the Thanksgiving holiday with a great deal of uncertainty. Sellers must figure out how many of their commitments they can fulfill and how to allocate the production that they have. Meanwhile, retailers must navigate between maintaining their customary loss-leader pricing and protecting margins against historically tight inventories, creating significant uncertainty for both industry participants and consumers heading into the critical Thanksgiving period.

Co-authored by: 

Dylan Hughes
Expana
1-732-240-5330 ext 286
[email protected]

Image source: Shutterstock