Middle East Conflict: Australia, New Zealand Beef Trade on Alert as Crisis Deepens

The Australian and New Zealand beef market is closely monitoring the latest escalation in the Middle East, with freight emerging as the immediate pressure point.

By Monday’s close, exporters were advised that cargoes moving to and from the Upper Gulf, Arabian Gulf and Persian Gulf would face an War Risk Surcharge (WRS) of over A$5,000 per reefer container, or about USD 3,500. 

Air freight routes have also been suspended, effectively halting chilled beef shipments.

Several sellers reported a number of order cancellations by close of business (COB) Monday as buyers reassess exposure amid mounting political uncertainty. Exporters are now actively reviewing re-routing options, maintaining close contact with shipping line partners and monitoring vessel movement.

With spot maritime rates to the Gulf climbing quickly, market concern is building that higher freight costs and longer transit times could spill into other trade lanes. Attention is also turning to congestion risks at alternative ports and key Southeast Asian transshipment hubs such as Singapore and Malaysia.

Any bottlenecks there could disrupt flows to major North Asian destinations such as China and Korea, at a time when delivery schedules are sensitive due to fast filling safeguard allocations.

Industry sources said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be unlikely to affect outbound shipments to the United Kingdom (UK) and continental Europe, as Australian and New Zealand beef typically moves via the Red Sea corridor or around Africa.

The direct impact on Australian and New Zealand beef remains limited given the Middle East’s modest share of total exports.

Australia shipped 40,522 metric tons (MT) to the Middle East in 2025, accounting for a small 2.6% of its record 1.54 million MT in total beef exports. Most volumes were premium Halal certified wagyu destined for high end hospitality and dining channels.

New Zealand’s annual exports to the region typically range just between 4,000 and 5,000 MT, representing a minor slice of its overall trade.

The conflict also comes just weeks after dozens of Australian red meat exporters promoted its beef offerings at Gulfood, the world’s largest food trade show, in a push to deepen Middle East ties as China and Korea safeguard quotas fill at a brisk pace.

Taken together, the signals are clear: the conflict has injected short term volatility into freight and routing channels, but overall trade exposure for Australia and New Zealand remains contained.

Co-authored by: 

Joe Muldowney
Expana
1-732-240-5330 ext. 244
[email protected]

Bill Smith
Expana
1-732-240-5330 ext. 265
[email protected]

Image source: Getty