New research from Expana
8.7% average saving across 40 protein commodities
A five-year study of Expana’s forecasting hedging indicators across poultry, red meat and seafood, with positive results in 37 of 40 price series
37 of 40 price series with a positive outcome
5–55% saving range in real client cases
40 protein commodities analysed
The question this report answers
Protein is often the single largest ingredient cost in a finished food product, so the timing of every purchase lands straight on the bottom line.
This report asks a direct question: if a procurement team had followed Expana’s hedging indicators over the past five years, what would it have cost them, or saved them?
We measured the answer across 40 protein price series and published the full method behind it.
How it breaks down by category
Every core forecast in scope is included. Nothing was excluded to improve the average.
| Category | Average saving | Series positive | Top result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poultry | +11.7% | 11 of 12 | Turkey Breast Fresh US at +31.7% |
| Red meat | +7.5% | 17 of 19 | Pork Trimmings at +30.6% |
| Seafood | +7.2% | 9 of 9 | Lobster US at +27.2% |
Measured against real client buying
Between March 2025 and March 2026, the forecasting team compared Expana’s indicators against the actual purchase data of 11 companies.
50–55%
Palm oil Q3 2025 · around $5M
$9.5M
Butter Q3 2025 · 10–15% saving
40–45%
Chicken Q3 2025 · around $600K
$7M
Corn Q3 2025 · 5–10% saving
20–25%
Sugar Q2 2025 · around $300K
$5m
Copper Q2 2025 · 5–10% saving
15–20%
Salmon Q3 2025 · around $650K
Illustrative and approximate. Results will vary by client, market conditions and implementation. This is not advice; any hedging or procurement decision should follow your own company policy and risk profile.
What's inside the report
- The headline result and how it splits across poultry, red meat and seafood
- Best and worst performers in each category, including the three series that lost money
- Real client cases from 11 companies, with measured savings between 5% and 55%
- The full method behind Expana’s four-level hedging indicator
- How each indicator is set from technical signals, supply-and-demand fundamentals and macro conditions