Satellite vegetation indices such as NDVI remain widely used for monitoring crop health, but their limitations mean they must be adapted to the crop, region, and season, Monika Sosnowska, Director – Research Analytics at Expana explained during Expana’s Agri-Food 2026 event in Amsterdam. They can also be complemented with direct field observations, including drones and surveys, to provide more accurate assessments.
Drought and moisture metrics like the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) offer insight into water availability and atmospheric demand, which can stress crops even when soil moisture appears adequate. Santiago Beguería, physical geographer and researcher at the Spanish National Research Council, explained that 2025 saw both drier and wetter periods, with marked regional differences. He cited the sharp 27 percent fall in European corn yields when dry conditions followed a wet year in 2021 as an example of the impact variability can have on production.
Extreme climate events that were once rare are now more frequent, contributing to market instability. Kyle Holland, Senior Market Reporter at Expana, pointed to Spain’s 2022 drought, which damaged olive trees and pushed olive oil prices to record levels, as evidence of how climate pressures are reshaping commodity markets.
While Eurostat data shows favorable soil moisture for much of the EU’s winter cereal crop in 2026, persistent dryness in parts of Eastern Europe may restrict spring growth. The discussions in Amsterdam underlined the need for integrated climate monitoring and adaptive strategies in farming.
Written by Thess Mostoles
