As one of the largest producers of salmon globally, Chile’s role in the Atlantic salmon export market is crucial. With a production of 769,239 metric tonnes (MT) in 2023, Chile holds the second-largest position in the world, only behind Norway. However, the outlook for Chilean Atlantic salmon exports in 2024 presents some challenges, as recent reports indicate a decline in production and a dip in export figures compared to the previous year.
Chilean Atlantic Salmon Export Trends in 2024
According to the Chilean National Fisheries Service (Sernapesca), Chile’s salmon production saw a modest year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 1.36% in 2023. However, in 2024, a decline in production is expected. Chilean Atlantic salmon exports from January to November 2024 showed a 5.32% reduction compared to the same period in 2023, signaling a contraction in the global market demand for Chilean salmon.
Brazil: The Key Market for Fresh Whole Salmon
Brazil continues to be the dominant market for Chilean Atlantic salmon, particularly for fresh whole fish, which makes up a significant portion of exports. In 2024, Brazil accounted for 72.78% of the fresh whole salmon exports. Interestingly, year-to-date (YTD) exports to Brazil increased by 10.45% compared to the same period in 2023, highlighting the country’s growing demand for Chilean salmon.
US Market Challenges
On the other hand, the US—the primary market for Chilean Atlantic salmon fresh fillets—saw a noticeable contraction. Exports to the US declined by 26.47% YTD as of November 2024. This reduction had a significant impact on overall export figures, given that the US market accounts for an overwhelming 92.40% of Chile’s fresh fillet exports. The decline in demand from the US, coupled with a general reduction in production, contributed to a drop in the overall export volume of Chilean Atlantic salmon.
Brazil’s Growing Demand for Fillets
While the US market has contracted, Brazil has shown impressive growth in the demand for Chilean Atlantic salmon fresh fillets. Although Brazil’s share of the fresh fillet export market remains small (just 0.29% of the total in 2024), exports to Brazil surged by 47.11% YTD in 2024, compared to the same period in 2023. This demonstrates a shift in the global market dynamics, with emerging markets like Brazil continuing to expand their share of the salmon import market.
Pricing Trends for Chilean Atlantic Salmon in 2024
The pricing trends for Chilean Atlantic salmon fillets have largely followed a typical seasonal pattern, with notable fluctuations throughout the year. The first quarter of 2024 saw strong demand, driving prices upward, especially as supply tightened. As expected, prices softened during the summer months, aligning with the usual seasonal dip in salmon demand in the US market.
However, an interesting trend emerged in November 2024, with pricing firmness observed earlier than expected. This shift was contra-seasonal, as the market saw an uptick in prices, pushing them closer to historical averages by early 2025. Despite the fluctuations, the price for Chilean Atlantic salmon in the US remained consistently above the five-year average, although it did dip below the three-year average for much of the year.
Outlook for Chilean Atlantic Salmon Exports
Looking ahead, the future of Chilean Atlantic salmon exports will depend on several factors, including production levels, market demand shifts, and pricing trends. While Brazil’s demand for fresh fillets shows promise, the US market will remain a critical player in shaping the future of exports. As Chile adjusts to new market dynamics and production challenges, its role in the global salmon industry remains pivotal.
For businesses involved in the Atlantic salmon export trade, understanding these trends will be crucial in making informed decisions and adapting to the changing landscape of the global seafood market.
Written by Sergio Morales
